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https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-508
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-508
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 10 Jun 2020

Submitted as: research article | 10 Jun 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Dependence of Predictability of Precipitation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Coastal Region on the Strength of Synoptic Control

Christian Keil1, Lucie Chabert1, Olivier Nuissier2, and Laure Raynaud2 Christian Keil et al.
  • 1Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany
  • 2CNRM (Météo-France & CNRS), 42 avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cédex, France

Abstract. The weather regime dependent predictability of precipitation in the convection permitting kilometric scale AROME-EPS is examined for the entire HyMeX SOP1 employing the convective adjustment timescale. This diagnostic quantifies variations in synoptic forcing on precipitation and is associated with different precipitation characteristics, forecast skill and predictability. During strong synoptic control, which is dominating the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-months period, the domain integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the spatial forecast quality of most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentiles, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes. The study also considers a prominent heavy precipitation event that occurred during the NAWDEX field campaign in the same region, and the predictability during this event is compared with the events that occurred during HyMeX. It is shown that the unconditional evaluation of precipitation widely parallels the strongly forced weather type evaluation and obscures forecast model characteristics typical for weak control.

Christian Keil et al.

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Christian Keil et al.

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Short summary
During strong synoptic control, which is dominating the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-months HyMeX SOP1 period, the domain integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the spatial forecast quality of most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentiles, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes.
During strong synoptic control, which is dominating the weather on 80 % of the days in the...
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