Journal cover Journal topic
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 5.414 IF 5.414
  • IF 5-year value: 5.958 IF 5-year
    5.958
  • CiteScore value: 9.7 CiteScore
    9.7
  • SNIP value: 1.517 SNIP 1.517
  • IPP value: 5.61 IPP 5.61
  • SJR value: 2.601 SJR 2.601
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 191 Scimago H
    index 191
  • h5-index value: 89 h5-index 89
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-271
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-271
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 22 Jun 2020

Submitted as: research article | 22 Jun 2020

Review status
This preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883

Lorenzo M. Polvani1,2,3 and Suzana J. Camargo2,3 Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo
  • 1Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
  • 2Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
  • 3Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA

Abstract. A recent study has presented compelling new evidence suggesting that the observed Eurasian warming in the winter following the 1992 Pinatubo eruption was, in all likelihood, unrelated to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere. Building on that study, we here turn our attention to the only other low-latitude eruption in the instrumental period with a comparably large Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI): the Krakatau eruption of August 1883. We study in detail the temperature anomalies in the first winter following that eruption, analyzing (1) observations, (2) reanalyses, and (3) models. Three findings emerge from our analysis. First, the observed post-Krakatau winter warming over Eurasia was unremarkable (only between 1- and 2-σ of the distribution from 1850 to present). Second, reanalyses indicate the existence of very large uncertainties, so much so that a Eurasian cooling is not incompatible with observations. Third, models robustly show the complete absence of a volcanically forced Eurasian winter warming: we here analyze both a 100-member initial-condition ensemble, and 140 simulations from the Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This wealth of evidence strongly suggests that, as in the case of Pinatubo, the observed warming over Eurasia in the winter of 1883/84 was, in all likelihood, unrelated to the Krakatau eruption. Together with the results for Pinatubo, we are led to conclude that if volcanically forced Eurasian winter warming exists at all, an eruption with a magnitude far exceeding these two (VEI = 6) events is needed.

Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo

Interactive discussion

Status: open (until 17 Aug 2020)
Status: open (until 17 Aug 2020)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo

Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo

Viewed

Total article views: 43 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
30 12 1 43 1 0
  • HTML: 30
  • PDF: 12
  • XML: 1
  • Total: 43
  • BibTeX: 1
  • EndNote: 0
Views and downloads (calculated since 22 Jun 2020)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 22 Jun 2020)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 127 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 127 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Saved

No saved metrics found.

Discussed

No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 05 Jul 2020
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
On the basis of early studies studies, now out of date, it is widely believed that large, low-latitude volcanic eruptions cause winter warming over Eurasia. Analyzing observational and modeling data, we here demonstrate that the warming over the Eurasia following the 1883 Krakatau eruption was unremarkable and, in all likelihood, unrelated to that eruption. The new research shows that no winter warming from volcanoes is expected even for such very large eruptions.
On the basis of early studies studies, now out of date, it is widely believed that large,...
Citation