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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-99
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-99
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 11 Feb 2019

Research article | 11 Feb 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Quantifying the contribution of anthropogenic influence to the East Asian winter monsoon in 1960–2012

Xin Hao1,2, Shengping He4,1, Huijun Wang1,2,3, and Tingting Han1,2 Xin Hao et al.
  • 1Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • 2Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • 3Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • 4Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen 0025, Norway

Abstract. The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) can be greatly influenced by many factors that can be classified as anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing. Here we explore the contribution of anthropogenic influence to the change in the EAWM over the past decades. Under all forcings observed during 1960–2013 (All-Hist run), the atmospheric general circulation model is able to reproduce the climatology and variability of the EAWM-related surface air temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height, and shows a statistically significant decreasing EAWM intensity with a trend coefficient of ∼−0.04 yr−1 which is close to the observed trend. By contrast, the simulation, which is driven by the same forcing as All-Hist run but with the anthropogenic contribution to them removed, shows no decreasing trend in the EAWM intensity. By comparing the simulations under two different forcing scenarios, we further reveal that the responses of the EAWM to the anthropogenic forcing include a rise of 0.6 ° in surface air temperature over the East Asia as well as weakening of the East Asia trough, which may result from the poleward expansion and intensification of the East Asian jet forced by the change of temperature gradient in the troposphere. Additionally, compared with the simulation without anthropogenic forcing, the frequency of strong (weak) EAWM occurrence is reduced (increased) by 45 % (from 0 to 10/7). These results indicate that the weakening of the EAWM during 1960–2013 may be mainly attributed to the anthropogenic influence.

Xin Hao et al.
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Short summary
The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) can be greatly influenced by many factors that can be classified as anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing. Our results show that the increasing anthropogenic emissions in the past decades may contribute to the weakening of the EAWM, and the frequency of occurrence of strong EAWM may have reduced by 45 % due to the anthropogenic forcing and the anthropogenic forcing is a dominant contributor to the occurrence of weak EAWM.
The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) can be greatly influenced by many factors that can be...
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