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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-895
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-895
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 19 Nov 2019

Submitted as: research article | 19 Nov 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Decadal changes in anthropogenic source contribution of PM2.5 pollution and related health impacts in China, 1990–2015

Jun Liu1, Yixuan Zheng1, Guannan Geng1, Chaopeng Hong1, Meng Li1, Xin Li1, Fei Liu2, Dan Tong1, Ruili Wu1, Bo Zheng2, Kebin He1,2, and Qiang Zhang1 Jun Liu et al.
  • 1Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of China
  • 2State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of China

Abstract. Air quality in China has changed dramatically in response to rapid development of economy and policies. In this work, we investigate the changes of anthropogenic source contribution to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and related health impacts in China during 1990–2015 and elucidate the drivers behind the decadal transition. We estimate the contribution of five anthropogenic emitting sectors to ambient PM2.5 exposure and related premature mortality over China during 1990–2015 with 5-yr intervals, by using an integrated model framework of bottom-up emission inventory, chemical transport model, and the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). The national anthropogenic PM2.5-related premature mortality estimated with GEMM for the nonaccidental deaths due to noncommunicable diseases and lower respiratory infections rose from 1.26 million (95 % CI: 1.05, 1.46) in 1990 to 2.18 million (95 % CI: 1.84, 2.50) in 2005; then, it decreased to 2.10 million (95 % CI: 1.76, 2.42) in 2015. In 1990, the residential sector was the leading source of the PM2.5-related premature mortality [559,000 (95 % CI: 467,000, 645,900), 44 % of total] in China, followed by industry (29 %), power (13 %), agriculture (9 %) and transportation (5 %). In 2015, the industrial sector became the largest contributor of PM2.5-related premature mortality [734,000 (95 % CI: 615,500, 844,900), 35 % of total], followed by residential (25 %), agriculture (23 %), transportation (10 %) and power (6 %). The decadal changes in source contribution to PM2.5-related premature mortality in China represents a combined impact of socioeconomic development and clean air policy. For example, active control measures have successfully reduced pollution from power sector, while contribution from industrial and transportation sector continuously increased due to more prominent growth of activity rates. Transition in fuel consumption dominated the decrease of contribution from residential sector. In the meanwhile, contribution from agriculture sector continuously increased due to persistent NH3 emissions and enhanced formation of secondary inorganic aerosols under a NH3 rich environment.

Jun Liu et al.
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Short summary
Ambient PM2.5 pollution contributed substantially to premature mortality in China. The contributions of various sectors to anthropogenic PM2.5-related premature mortality have changed substantially during 1990–2015. In 1990, the residential sector was the leading source, followed by industry, power, agriculture and transportation. Whereas in 2015, the industrial sector became the largest contributor, followed by residential, agriculture, transportation and power.
Ambient PM2.5 pollution contributed substantially to premature mortality in China. The...
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