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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-778
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-778
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 15 Oct 2019

Submitted as: research article | 15 Oct 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Trends and source apportionment of aerosols in Europe during 1980–2018

Yang Yang1, Sijia Lou2, Hailong Wang3, Pinya Wang1, and Hong Liao1 Yang Yang et al.
  • 1Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
  • 2School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
  • 3Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA

Abstract. Aerosols have significantly affected health, environment and climate in Europe. Aerosol concentrations have been declining since 1980s in Europe, mainly owing to the reduction of local aerosol and precursor emissions. Emissions from other source regions of the world, which have been changing rapidly as well, may also perturb the historical and future trends of aerosols and change their radiative impact in Europe. This study examines trends of aerosols in Europe during 1980–2018 and quantify contributions from sixteen source regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with an Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging technique (CAM5-EAST). The simulated near-surface total mass concentration of sulfate, black carbon and primary organic carbon had a 62 % decrease during 1980–2018, of which the majority was contributed by reductions of local emissions in Europe and 8 %–9 % was induced by the decrease in emissions from Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. With the decreases in the fractional contribution of local emissions, aerosols transported from other source regions are increasingly important to air quality in Europe. During 1980–2018, the decrease in sulfate loading leads to a warming effect of 2.0 W m−2 in Europe, with 12 % coming from changes in non-European sources, especially from North America and Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. According to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, contributions to the sulfate radiative forcing over Europe from both European local emissions and non-European emissions would decrease at a comparable rate in the next three decades, suggesting that future changes in non-European emissions are as important as European emissions in causing possible regional climate change associated with aerosols in Europe.

Yang Yang et al.
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Short summary
Aerosol concentration decreased in Europe during 1980–2018, of which 7 % was induced by the changes in non-European emissions. Aerosols transported from other source regions are increasingly important to air quality in Europe. Contributions to the sulfate radiative forcing over Europe from both European and non-European emissions would decrease at a comparable rate in the next three decades. Future changes in non-European emissions are important in causing regional climate change in Europe.
Aerosol concentration decreased in Europe during 1980–2018, of which 7 % was induced by the...
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