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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-696
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-696
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 25 Sep 2019

Submitted as: research article | 25 Sep 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Uncertainty analysis of a European high-resolution emission inventory of CO2 and CO to support inverse modelling and network design

Ingrid Super, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Antoon J. H. Visschedijk, and Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon Ingrid Super et al.
  • Department of Climate, Air and Sustainability, TNO, P.O. Box 80015, 3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands

Abstract. Quantification of greenhouse gas emissions is receiving a lot of attention, because of its relevance for climate mitigation. Quantification is often done with an inverse modelling framework, combining atmospheric transport models, prior gridded emission inventories and a network of atmospheric observations to optimize the emission inventories. An important aspect of such method is a correct quantification of the uncertainties in all aspects of the modelling framework. The uncertainties in gridded emission inventories are, however, not systematically analysed. In this work, a statistically coherent method is used to quantify the uncertainties in a high-resolution gridded emission inventory of CO2 and CO for Europe. We perform a range of Monte Carlo simulations to determine the effect of uncertainties in different inventory components, including the spatial and temporal distribution, on the uncertainty in total emissions and the resulting atmospheric mixing ratios. We find that the uncertainty in the total emissions for the selected domain are 1 % for CO2 and 6 % for CO. Introducing spatial disaggregation causes a significant increase in the uncertainty of up to 40 % for CO2 and 70 % for CO for specific grid cells. Using gridded uncertainties specific regions can be defined that have the largest uncertainty in emissions and are thus an interesting target for inverse modelers. However, the largest sectors are usually the best-constrained ones (low relative uncertainty), so the absolute uncertainty is the best indicator for this. With this knowledge areas can be identified that are most sensitive to the largest emission uncertainties, which supports network design.

Ingrid Super et al.
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Short summary
Emission data contain uncertainties introduced by the methodology and the data used. We quantified uncertainties in gridded emissions using the uncertainty in underlying data, showing that disaggregation in space and time significantly increases the uncertainty. Understanding uncertainties helps to interpret atmospheric measurements and the gap with modelled concentrations. Moreover, our analyses help identify regions with large uncertainties, which require further scrutiny.
Emission data contain uncertainties introduced by the methodology and the data used. We...
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