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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-261
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-261
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 18 Apr 2019

Submitted as: research article | 18 Apr 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Contributions of Nordic anthropogenic emissions on air pollution and premature mortality over the Nordic region and the Arctic

Ulas Im1,2, Jesper H. Christensen1,2, Ole-Kenneth Nielsen1,2, Maria Sand3, Risto Makkonen4,5, Camilla Geels1,2, Camilla Anderson6, Jaakko Kukkonen4, Susana Lopez-Aparacio7, and Jørgen Brandt1,2 Ulas Im et al.
  • 1Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science, Atmospheric Modelling Section, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark
  • 2Interdisciplinary Center for Climate Change (iCLIMATE), Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark
  • 3Center for International Climate Research, Postboks 1129 Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway
  • 4Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palmenin aukio 1, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland
  • 5University of Helsinki, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research, P.O. Box 64, 00014, Helsinki, Finland
  • 6Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden
  • 7NILU – Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Instituttveien 18, P.O. Box 100, 2027 Kjeller, Norway

Abstract. This modelling study presents the sectoral contributions of anthropogenic emissions in the four Nordic countries; Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, on air pollution levels and the associated health impacts and costs over the Nordic and the Arctic region for the year 2015. The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) has been used on a 50 km resolution over Europe in tagged mode in order to calculate the response of a 30 % reduction of each emission sector in each Nordic country individually. The emission sectors considered in the study were energy production, residential/commercial heating, industry, traffic, off-road mobile sources, and waste management/agriculture. In total, 28 simulations were carried out. Following the air pollution modelling, the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) model has been used to calculate the associated premature mortality and their costs. Results showed that more than 80 % of PM2.5 concentrations in the considered four Nordic countries were transported from outside these four countries. The leading emission sector in each country was found to be non-industrial combustion (contributing by more than 60 % to the total PM2.5 mass), except for Sweden, where industry contributed to PM2.5 with a comparable amount as non-industrial combustion. In addition to residential combustion, the next most important source categories were industry, agriculture and traffic. The main chemical constituent of PM2.5 concentrations was organic carbon in all countries, which suggested that residential wood burning was the dominant national source of pollution in the Nordic countries. We have estimated the total number of premature mortality cases due to air pollution to be around 4000 in Denmark and Sweden and around 2000 in Finland and Norway. These premature mortality cases led to a total cost of 7 billion Euros in the selected Nordic countries. The assessment of the related premature mortality and associated cost estimates suggested that residential combustion, together with industry and traffic, will be the main sectors to be targeted in emission mitigation strategies in the future.

Ulas Im et al.
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Short summary
Sectoral contributions of anthropogenic emissions in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, on air pollution levels and the associated mortality and costs over the Nordic and the Arctic region are calculated. Results showed that more than 80 % of PM2.5 concentrations in the considered four Nordic countries were transported from outside Scandinavia and that residential combustion, together with industry and traffic, are be the main sectors to be targeted in emission mitigation strategies.
Sectoral contributions of anthropogenic emissions in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, on air...
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