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© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 29 Mar 2019

Submitted as: research article | 29 Mar 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Contrasting effects of CO2 fertilisation, land-use change and warming on seasonal amplitude of northern hemisphere CO2 exchange

Ana Bastos1, Philippe Ciais2, Frédéric Chevallier2, Christian Rödenbeck3, Ashley P. Ballantyne4, Fabienne Maignan2, Yi Yin5, Marcos Fernández-Martínez6, Pierre Friedlingstein7, Josep Peñuelas8,9, Shilong L. Piao10, Stephen Sitch11, William K. Smith12, Xuhui Wang2, Zaichun Zhu13, Vanessa Haverd14, Etsushi Kato15, Atul K. Jain16, Sebastian Lienert17, Danica Lombardozzi18, Julia E. M. S. Nabel19, Philippe Peylin2, Benjamin Poulter20, and Dan Zhu2 Ana Bastos et al.
  • 1Ludwig-Maximilians Universität, Deptartment of Geography, Luisenstr. 37, 80333, München, Germany
  • 2Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
  • 3Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
  • 4Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Science, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, 59812, USA
  • 5Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
  • 6Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium
  • 7College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
  • 8CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-UAB, Cerdanyola del Valles, 08193, Catalonia, Spain
  • 9CREAF, Cerdanyola del Valles, 08193, Catalonia, Spain
  • 10Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
  • 11College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
  • 12School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
  • 13School of Urban Planning and Design Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University Shenzhen, 518055, P. R. China
  • 14CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, 2601, Australia
  • 15Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
  • 16Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
  • 17Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern CH-3012, Switzerland
  • 18Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80302, USA
  • 19Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
  • 20NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Lab., Greenbelt, MD 20816, USA

Abstract. Continuous atmospheric CO2 monitoring data indicate an increase in seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of CO2 exchange in northern high latitudes. The major drivers of enhanced SCA remain unclear and intensely debated with land-use change, CO2 fertilization and warming identified as likely contributors. We integrated CO2-flux data from two atmospheric inversions (consistent with atmospheric records) and from and 11 state-of-the-art land-surface models (LSMs) to evaluate the relative importance of individual contributors to trends and drivers of the SCA of CO2-fluxes for 1980−2015. The LSMs generally reproduce the latitudinal increase in SCA trends within the inversions range. Inversions and LSMs attribute SCA increase to boreal Asia and Europe due to enhanced vegetation productivity (in LSMs) and point to contrasting effects of CO2 fertilisation (positive) and warming (negative) on SCA. Our results do not support land-use change as a key contributor to the increase in SCA. The sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature in LSMs explained biases in SCA trends, which suggests SCA could help to constrain model turnover times.

Ana Bastos et al.
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Ana Bastos et al.
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Publications Copernicus
Short summary
Here we show that land-surface models have improved their ability to simulate the increase in the amplitude of seasonal CO2 exchange (SCA) by ecosystems, compared to estimates by atmospheric inversions. We find a dominant role of vegetation growth over boreal Eurasia to the observed increase in SCA, strongly driven by CO2 fertilization, and an overall negative effect of temperature on SCA. Model biases can be explained by the sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature.
Here we show that land-surface models have improved their ability to simulate the increase in...