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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-126
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-126
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 09 Apr 2019

Submitted as: research article | 09 Apr 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Climate benefits of proposed carbon dioxide mitigation strategies for international shipping and aviation

Catherine C. Ivanovich, Ilissa B. Ocko, Pedro Piris-Cabezas, and Annie Petsonk Catherine C. Ivanovich et al.
  • Environmental Defense Fund, 1875 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA

Abstract. While individual countries work to achieve and strengthen their nationally determined contributions to the Paris Agreement, the growing emissions from two economic sectors remain outside the bounds of national jurisdictions: international shipping and aviation. Reducing emissions from these sectors is particularly challenging because adoption of any policies and targets requires agreement of a large number of countries. However, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) have recently announced strategies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from their respective sectors. Here we provide information on the climate benefits of these proposed measures, along with related potential measures. We find that if no actions are taken, CO2 emissions from international shipping and aviation may contribute roughly equally to an additional combined 0.15 °C to global temperature rise by end of century—which is 15 % and 30 % of the “allowable warming” we have left to stay below the 2 °C or 1.5 °C thresholds, respectively. However, stringent mitigation measures may avoid over 85 % of this projected future warming from the CO2 emissions from each sector. Quantifying the climate benefits of proposed mitigation pathways is critical as international organizations work to develop and meet long-term targets.

Catherine C. Ivanovich et al.
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Catherine C. Ivanovich et al.
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Short summary
The Paris Agreement set the goal of remaining well below a 2 degree Celsius global temperature rise, but it is unclear how the future emissions from international shipping and aviation will contribute to this threshold. Here we estimate that the sectors’ future emissions of carbon dioxide will contribute a combined 0.15 degrees Celsius by the end of the century should no action be taken, but that proposed mitigation policies have the potential to reduce this warming by almost 90 percent.
The Paris Agreement set the goal of remaining well below a 2 degree Celsius global temperature...
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