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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1202
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1202
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 17 Feb 2020

Submitted as: research article | 17 Feb 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapor changes in CMIP6 models from 1850–2100

James Keeble1,2, Birgit Hassler3, Antara Banerjee2,24, Ramiro Checa-Garcia5, Gabriel Chiodo6,7, Sean Davis4, Veronika Eyring3,8, Paul T. Griffiths1,2, Olaf Morgenstern9, Peer Nowack10,11, Guang Zeng9, Jiankai Zhang12, Greg Bodeker13,14, David Cugnet15, Gokhan Danabasoglu16, Makoto Deushi17, Larry W. Horowitz18, Lijuan Li19, Martine Michou20, Michael J. Mills21, Pierre Nabat20, Sungsu Park22, and Tongwen Wu23 James Keeble et al.
  • 1Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
  • 2National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
  • 3Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
  • 4NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO USA
  • 5Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement: Gif-sur-Yvette, Île-de-France, France
  • 6Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 7Department of Applied Physics and Applied Math, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
  • 8University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), Bremen, Germany
  • 9National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
  • 10Grantham Institute, Department of Physics and the Data Science Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
  • 11School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
  • 12Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
  • 13Bodeker Scientific, 42 Russell Street, Alexandra, 9320, New Zealand
  • 14School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University, New Zealand
  • 15Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/École Normale Supérieure – PSL Research University/École Polytechnique – IPP, Paris, France
  • 16National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
  • 17Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
  • 18GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA
  • 19State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • 20CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo‐France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
  • 21Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 22Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
  • 23Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
  • 24Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre- industrial (1850) to the end of the 21st century in CMIP6 models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global total column ozone (TCO) has increased from ∼300 DU in 1850 to ∼305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation under other SSPs. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present day and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Both TCO and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour show large variability following explosive volcanic eruptions.

James Keeble et al.

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Short summary
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850-2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and changes to both...
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