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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1201
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1201
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 03 Feb 2020

Submitted as: research article | 03 Feb 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Fast responses on pre-industrial climate from present-day aerosols in a CMIP6 multi-model study

Prodromos Zanis1, Dimitris Akritidis1, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias1, Robert J. Allen2, Susanne E. Bauer3, Olivier Boucher4, Jason Cole5, Ben Johnson6, Makoto Deushi7, Martine Michou8, Jane Mulcahy6, Pierre Nabat8, Dirk Olivie9, Naga Oshima7, Adriana Sima4, Michael Schulz9, and Toshihiko Takemura10 Prodromos Zanis et al.
  • 1Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
  • 2Department of Earth Sciences, University of California Riverside, Irvine, USA
  • 3NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
  • 4CNRS, LMD/IPSL, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
  • 5Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Canada
  • 6Met Office, Exeter, UK
  • 7Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
  • 8CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
  • 9Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
  • 10Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan

Abstract. In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth System Models (ESMs) and General Circulation Models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations; a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterised by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with a southward shift of the Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and a weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, leading the ITCZ and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemispheric pattern. An interesting feature in aerosol induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over Southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.

Prodromos Zanis et al.

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Latest update: 18 Feb 2020
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Short summary
In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth System Models (ESMs) and General Circulation Models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations; a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014.
In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10...
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