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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1188
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1188
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 30 Jan 2020

Submitted as: research article | 30 Jan 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal ACP.

Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions

Laura J. Wilcox1,2, Zhen Liu3, Bjørn H. Samset4, Ed Hawkins1,2, Marianne T. Lund4, Kalle Nordling5, Sabine Undorf6, Massimo Bollasina3, Annica M. L. Ekman6, Srinath Krishnan6, Joonas Merikanto5, and Andrew G. Turner1,2 Laura J. Wilcox et al.
  • 1National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK
  • 2Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  • 3School of Geosciences, Grant Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
  • 4CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
  • 5Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
  • 6Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract. There is large uncertainty in future aerosol emissions scenarios explored in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), with plausible pathways spanning a range of possibilities from large global reductions in emissions to 2050 to moderate global increases over the same period. Diversity in emissions across the pathways is particularly large over Asia. Rapid anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emission reductions between the present day and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with weak air quality policies. However, the effects of aerosol reductions don't persist in precipitation to the end of the 21st century, when response to greenhouse gases dominates differences across the SSPs. The relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes is particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes. Precipitation increases here are initially suppressed in SSPs 2–4.5 and 5–8.5 relative to SSP 1–1.9 and 3–7.0 when the impact of East Asian emission decreases is counteracted by that due to continued increases in South Asian emissions.

Laura J. Wilcox et al.

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Status: open (until 26 Mar 2020)
Status: open (until 26 Mar 2020)
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Laura J. Wilcox et al.

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Short summary
Projected changes in man made aerosol range from large reductions to moderate increases in emissions until 2050. Rapid reductions between the present and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with continued increases in aerosol. The relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes is particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes, affecting the sign of the trend in the coming decades.
Projected changes in man made aerosol range from large reductions to moderate increases in...
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