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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 09 Jan 2019

Research article | 09 Jan 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Growth in mid-monsoon dry phases over Indian region: Prevailing influence of anthropogenic aerosols

Rohit Chakraborty1, Bijay Kumar Guha2, Shamitaksha Talukdar1, Madineni Venkat Ratnam1, and Animesh Maitra3 Rohit Chakraborty et al.
  • 1National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki, India
  • 2National Institute of Technology, Rourkela, India
  • 3Institute of Radiophysics and Electronics, Kolkata, India

Abstract. A detailed investigation on the potentially drought prone regions over India has been presented in this study based on the balance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) during the South West Asian mid-monsoon season. We methodically introduce a parameter named dry day frequency (DDF) which is found suitable to present the drought index (DI) in mid-monsoon season hence strongly associated with the possibility of drought occurrences. The present study investigates the probable aspects which influence the DDF over these regions revealing that the abundance of anthropogenic aerosols especially over urbanized location have prevailing role on the growth of DDF during last few decades. The prominent increasing trend in DDF over Lucknow (26.84° N, 80.94° E), a densely populated urban location situated in the Indo-Gangetic plain, strongly reflects the dominant association of man-made aerosols with the increasing dry phase occurrences. Increase in DDF (~ 90 %) during the last 60 years is observed over this urban area compared to a broader region in its surroundings. In addition, periodic impacts of synoptic scale phenomena like ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) or SSN (Sun spot number) become weaker when the study location is downscaled towards an urbanized region. However, there still remains some unclear role of air-mass transport on DDF over the potential drought prone region of north-west India. Finally, when long term projections of DDF are drawn using the high urbanization scenario of RCP 8.5 a huge rise in dry days are seen during mid-July to mid-September (reaching up to 50 dry days by the year 2100 over Lucknow) which will be a very crucial concern for policy makers in future.

Rohit Chakraborty et al.
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Short summary
Drought is a natural and recurrent phenomenon which occurs in all forms of climate. It has lot of impact on the meteorological or climatological, agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic conditions. In the changing climate, these droughts are increasing and affecting mankind in several ways. India being agricultural country, these droughts has important consequences. In this study, a detailed investigation on the potentially drought prone regions over India has been presented.
Drought is a natural and recurrent phenomenon which occurs in all forms of climate. It has lot...
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