<p>Multiple CMIP5 future scenarios are compared to historic simulations in order to study different drivers governing air pollution: Regional climate, anthropogenic emissions and long-range transport. Climate impact study covers the period of 2031 to 2100 for future scenarios compared to 1976 to 2005 for historic simulations, and includes three RCPs (Representative concentration pathways, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A detailed analysis of total PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations, its changes and also that of its components is included. The individual effects of meteorological conditions on PM<sub>10</sub> components are explored in these scenarios in an effort to pinpoint the meteorological parameter(s) governing each component. Anthropogenic emission impact study covers the period of 2046 and 2055 with CLE2050 (Current legislation emissions for 2050) anthropogenic emissions compared to CLE2010 in historic simulations covering the period of 1996 to 2005. Long-range transport is explored by changing the initial and boundary conditions in the chemistry-transport model, these scenarios cover the same period as the emission impact studies. Finally, a cumulative effects of these drivers is performed and the contribution of each driver on PM<sub>10</sub> and its components is calculated. The results show that, regional climate causes a decrease in PM<sub>10</sub> concentration in our scenarios, as a result of a decrease in nitrate, sulfate, ammonium and dust in most scenarios. Meanwhile, biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOA) shows an important increase in all scenarios. Nitrate and BSOA show a strong dependence to temperature, while sulfates are dependent to relative humidity. A cumulative look at all drivers shows that anthropogenic emission changes overshadow changes caused by climate and long-range transport for most components except for dust, for which long-range transport changes seem to be more influential.</p>