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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-868
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-868
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 05 Dec 2018

Research article | 05 Dec 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Future climatic drivers and their effect on PM10 components in Europe and the Mediterranean Sea

Arineh Cholakian1,2, Augustin Colette2, Giancarlo Ciarelli1, Isabelle Coll1, and Matthias Beekmann1 Arineh Cholakian et al.
  • 1Laboratoire Inter-Universitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA), UMR CNRS 7583, Université Paris Est Créteil et Université Paris Diderot, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Créteil, France
  • 2Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Parc Technologique ALATA, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France

Abstract. Multiple CMIP5 future scenarios are compared to historic simulations in order to study different drivers governing air pollution: Regional climate, anthropogenic emissions and long-range transport. Climate impact study covers the period of 2031 to 2100 for future scenarios compared to 1976 to 2005 for historic simulations, and includes three RCPs (Representative concentration pathways, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A detailed analysis of total PM10 concentrations, its changes and also that of its components is included. The individual effects of meteorological conditions on PM10 components are explored in these scenarios in an effort to pinpoint the meteorological parameter(s) governing each component. Anthropogenic emission impact study covers the period of 2046 and 2055 with CLE2050 (Current legislation emissions for 2050) anthropogenic emissions compared to CLE2010 in historic simulations covering the period of 1996 to 2005. Long-range transport is explored by changing the initial and boundary conditions in the chemistry-transport model, these scenarios cover the same period as the emission impact studies. Finally, a cumulative effects of these drivers is performed and the contribution of each driver on PM10 and its components is calculated. The results show that, regional climate causes a decrease in PM10 concentration in our scenarios, as a result of a decrease in nitrate, sulfate, ammonium and dust in most scenarios. Meanwhile, biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOA) shows an important increase in all scenarios. Nitrate and BSOA show a strong dependence to temperature, while sulfates are dependent to relative humidity. A cumulative look at all drivers shows that anthropogenic emission changes overshadow changes caused by climate and long-range transport for most components except for dust, for which long-range transport changes seem to be more influential.

Arineh Cholakian et al.
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Multiple future scenario sets have been compared to reference simulations in order to assess the effects of different climate change drivers (regional climate, anthropogenic emissions, long-range transport) on the concentration of PM10 and its components. The effect of different meteorological parameters has been explored on the concentration of PM components in the case of changes due to regional climate. A cumulative impact study on the three aforementioned drivers has also been included.
Multiple future scenario sets have been compared to reference simulations in order to assess the...
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