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© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 24 Jul 2018

Research article | 24 Jul 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Impacts of meteorology and emissions on surface ozone increases over Central Eastern China between 2003 and 2015

Lei Sun1,2, Likun Xue1, Yuhang Wang2, Longlei Li2, Jintai Lin3, Ruijing Ni3, Yingying Yan3,4, Lulu Chen3, Juan Li1, Qingzhu Zhang1, and Wenxing Wang1 Lei Sun et al.
  • 1Environment Research Institute, Shandong University, Ji’nan, Shandong, China
  • 2School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
  • 3Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China
  • 4Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), 430074, Wuhan, China

Abstract. Recent studies have shown that surface ozone (O3) concentrations over Central Eastern China (CEC) have increased significantly during the past decade. We quantified the effects of changes in meteorological conditions and O3 precursor emissions on surface O3 levels over CEC between July 2003 and July 2015 using the GEOS-Chem model. The simulated monthly mean maximum daily 8-h average O3 concentration (MDA8 O3) in July increased by approximately 13.6%, from 65.5±7.9ppbv (2003) to 74.4±8.7ppbv (2015), comparable to the observed results. The change in meteorology led to an increase of MDA8 O3 of 5.8±3.9ppbv over the central part of CEC, in contrast to a decrease of about −0.8±3.5ppbv over the eastern part of the region. In comparison, the MDA8 O3 over the central and eastern parts of CEC increased by 3.5±1.4ppbv and 5.6±1.8ppbv due to the increased emissions. The increase in regional averaged O3 resulting from the emission increase (4.0±1.9ppbv) was higher than that caused by meteorological changes (3.1±4.9ppbv) relative to the 2003 standard simulation, while the regions with larger O3 increases showed a higher sensitivity to meteorological conditions than to emission changes. Sensitivity tests indicate that increased levels of anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) dominate the O3 increase over the eastern part of CEC, and anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) mainly increase O3 concentrations over the central and western parts, while decrease O3 in a few urban areas in the eastern part. Process analysis showed that net photochemical production and meteorological conditions (transport in particular) are two important factors that influence O3 levels over the CEC. The results of this study suggest a need to further assess the effectiveness of control strategies for O3 pollution in the context of regional meteorology, transboundary transport, and anthropogenic emission changes.

Lei Sun et al.
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Lei Sun et al.
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