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© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 11 Jun 2018

Research article | 11 Jun 2018

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This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Ultraviolet Radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative

Kévin Lamy1, Thierry Portafaix1, Béatrice Josse2, Colette Brogniez3, Sophie Godin-Beekmann4, Hassan Bencherif1,5, Laura Revell6,7,8, Hideharu Akiyoshi9, Slimane Bekki4, Michaela I. Hegglin10, Patrick Jöckel11, Oliver Kirner12, Virginie Marecal2, Olaf Morgenstern13, Andrea Stenke6, Guang Zeng13, N. Luke Abraham14,15, Alexander T. Archibald14, Neil Butchart16, Martyn P. Chipperfield17, Glauco Di Genova18, Makoto Deushi19, Sandip S. Dhomse17, Rong-Ming Hu4, Douglas Kinnison20, Martine Michou2, Fiona M. O'Connor16, Luke D. Oman21, Giovanni Pitari18, David A. Plummer22, John A. Pyle14, Eugene Rozanov6,23, David Saint-Martin2, Kengo Sudo24, Taichu Y. Tanaka19, Daniele Visioni18, and Kohei Yoshida19 Kévin Lamy et al.
  • 1LACy, Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones (UMR 8105 CNRS, Université de La Réunion, Météo-France), Saint-Denis de La Réunion, France
  • 2Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
  • 3Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique (LOA), Université Lille 1 Sciences et Technologies, Villeneuve d’Ascq, France
  • 4Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales, Service d’Aéronomie (LATMOS), CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Pierre et Marie Curie University, Paris, France
  • 5School of Chemistry and Physics, University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa
  • 6Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich (ETHZ), Zürich, Switzerland
  • 7Bodeker Scientific, Christchurch, New Zealand
  • 8School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
  • 9National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
  • 10Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  • 11Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
  • 12Steinbuch Centre for Computing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
  • 13National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
  • 14Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
  • 15National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK
  • 16Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Exeter, UK
  • 17School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
  • 18Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Universitá dell’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy
  • 19Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
  • 20National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA
  • 21National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA GSFC), Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
  • 22Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montréal, Canada
  • 23Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Centre, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
  • 24Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan

Abstract. We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon from the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only clear-sky UVI. We compared the UVI climatologies obtained from CCMI and TUV against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI and TUV and ground-based measurements ranged between −4 % and 11 %.

We calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in UVI in 2100 (of 2–4 %) in the tropical belt (30° N–30° S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0, and found a 2.3 % decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher UV indices are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 to 5.5 % for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9 % for RCP 8.5.

We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960–2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, the same signal is observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere.

Finally, we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on UVI as total column does.

Kévin Lamy et al.
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Kévin Lamy et al.
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Short summary
In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on...