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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-231
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
12 Apr 2018
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future
Junxi Zhang1, Yang Gao2, Kun Luo1, L. Ruby Leung3, Yang Zhang4, Kai Wang4, and Jianren Fan1 1State Key Laboratory of Clean Energy, Department of Energy Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310027, China
2Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, 266100, China
3Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, 99354, USA
4Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA
Abstract. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) was used to study the effect of extreme weather events on ozone in US for historical (2001–2010) and future (2046–2055) periods under RCP8.5 scenario. During extreme weather events, including heat waves, atmospheric stagnation, and their compound events, ozone concentration is much higher compared to non-extreme events period. A striking enhancement of effect during compound events is revealed when heat wave and stagnation occur simultaneously and both high temperature and low wind speed promote the production of high ozone concentrations. In regions with high emissions, compound extreme events can shift the high-end tails of the probability density functions (PDFs) of ozone to even higher values to generate extreme ozone episodes. In regions with low emissions, extreme events can still increase high ozone frequency but the high-end tails of the PDFs are constrained by the low emissions. Despite large anthropogenic emission reduction projected for the future, compound events increase ozone more than the single events by 10 % to 13 %, comparable to the present, and high ozone episodes are not eliminated. Using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the frequency of compound events is found to increase more dominantly compared to the increased frequency of single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China. High ozone episodes will likely continue in the future due to increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme events, despite reductions in anthropogenic emissions of its precursors. However, the latter could reduce or eliminate extreme ozone episodes, so improving projections of compound events and their impacts on extreme ozone may better constrain future projections of extreme ozone episodes that have detrimental effects on human health.
Citation: Zhang, J., Gao, Y., Luo, K., Leung, L. R., Zhang, Y., Wang, K., and Fan, J.: Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-231, in review, 2018.
Junxi Zhang et al.
Junxi Zhang et al.
Junxi Zhang et al.

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Short summary
We used a regional model to investigate the impact of atmosphere with high temperature and low wind speed on ozone concentration. When these compound events (heat waves and stagnant weather) occur simultaneously, a striking ozone enhancement is revealed. This type of compound event is projected to increase more dominantly compared to single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China, implying the importance of reducing emission in order to alleviate the impact from the compound events.
We used a regional model to investigate the impact of atmosphere with high temperature and low...
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