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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-818
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
04 Oct 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate
Pavle Arsenovic1, Eugene Rozanov1,2, Julien Anet3, Andrea Stenke1, and Thomas Peter1 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland
2Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
3Zürich University of Applied Sciences, Winterthur, Switzerland
Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding potential interferences with natural forcings is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with interactive ocean. We examine several model simulations for the period 2000–2199, following the greenhouse gas scenario RCP4.5, but with different solar forcings: the reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199, whereas the grand solar minimum simulations assume strong declines in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m−2 with different durations. Decreased solar activity is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease. On the global scale the reduced solar forcing compensates at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of 21st and around 25 % at the end of 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be stronger, in particular in northern high latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduced incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to less ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic chlorine-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum in the 22nd century or later.

Citation: Arsenovic, P., Rozanov, E., Anet, J., Stenke, A., and Peter, T.: Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-818, in review, 2017.
Pavle Arsenovic et al.
Pavle Arsenovic et al.
Pavle Arsenovic et al.

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Short summary
The global warming persists in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes unusually strong and long decline. Decreased ozone production caused by reduction of solar activity and change of atmospheric dynamics due to the global warming might result in further thinning of tropical ozone layer. Globally, total ozone would not recover to the pre-ozone hole values as long as the decline of solar activity lasts. This may let more ultra-violet radiation reach the Earth's surface.
The global warming persists in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes unusually...
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