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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-779
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
12 Sep 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Sectorial and regional uncertainty analysis of the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to regional and global PM2.5 health impacts
Monica Crippa1, Greet Janssens-Maenhout1, Diego Guizzardi2, Rita Van Dingenen1, and Frank Dentener1 1European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
2Didesk Informatica, Verbania (VB), Italy
Abstract. In this work we couple the HTAPv2.2 global air pollutant emission inventory with the global source receptor model TM5-FASST to evaluate the relative contribution of the major anthropogenic emission sources (power generation, industry, ground transport, residential, agriculture and international shipping) to air quality and human health in 2010. We focus on particulate matter (PM) concentrations because of the relative importance of PM2.5 emissions in populated areas and the proven cumulative negative effects on human health. We estimate that in 2010 regional annual averaged anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations varied between ca. 1 and 40 μg/m3 depending on the region, with the highest concentrations observed in China and India, and lower concentrations in Europe and North America. The relative contribution of anthropogenic emission source sectors to PM2.5 concentrations varies between the regions. European PM pollution is mainly influenced by the agricultural and residential sectors, while the major contributing sectors to PM pollution in Asia and the emerging economies are the power generation, industrial and residential sectors. We also evaluate the emission sectors and emission regions in which pollution reduction measures would lead to the largest improvement on the overall air quality. We show that in order to improve air quality, regional policies should be implemented (e.g. in Europe) due to the transboundary features of PM pollution. In addition, we investigate emission inventory uncertainties and their propagation to PM2.5 concentrations, in order to identify the most effective strategies to be implemented at sector and regional level to improve emission inventories knowledge and air quality. We show that the uncertainty of PM concentrations depends not only on the uncertainty of local emission inventories but also on that of the surrounding regions. Finally, we propagate emission inventories uncertainty to PM concentrations and health impacts.

Citation: Crippa, M., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Guizzardi, D., Van Dingenen, R., and Dentener, F.: Sectorial and regional uncertainty analysis of the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to regional and global PM2.5 health impacts, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-779, in review, 2017.
Monica Crippa et al.
Monica Crippa et al.
Monica Crippa et al.

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In this work we evaluate the contribution of the major anthropogenic emission sources to global air quality and human health, focusing on particulate matter (PM) concentrations because of their importance in populated areas and the proven cumulative negative effects on human health. We show that in order to improve air quality, regional policies should be implemented (e.g. in Europe) due to the transboundary features of PM pollution.
In this work we evaluate the contribution of the major anthropogenic emission sources to global...
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