Journal cover Journal topic
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-751
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
27 Sep 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the frame work of AQMEII3
Ulas Im1, Jørgen Brandt1, Camilla Geels1, Kaj Mantzius Hansen1, Jesper Heile Christensen1, Mikael Skou Andersen1, Efisio Solazzo2, Ioannis Kioutsioukis3, Ummugulsum Alyuz4, Alessandra Balzarini5, Rocio Baro6, Roberto Bellasio7, Roberto Bianconi7, Johannes Bieser8, Augustin Colette9, Gabriele Curci10,11, Aidan Farrow12, Johannes Flemming13, Andrea Fraser14, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero6, Nutthida Kitwiroon15, Ciao-Kai Liang16, Guido Pirovano5, Luca Pozzoli4,2, Marje Prank17,18, Rebecca Rose14, Ranjeet Sokhi12, Paolo Tuccella10,11, Alper Unal4, Marta Garcia Vivanco9,19, Jason West16, Greg Yarwood20, Christian Hogrefe21, and Stefano Galmarini2 1Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000, Roskilde, Denmark
2European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VA), Italy
3University of Patras, Department of Physics, University Campus 26504 Rio, Patras, Greece
4Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
5Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico (RSE SpA), Milan, Italy
6University of Murcia, Department of Physics, Physics of the Earth, Campus de Espinardo, Ed. CIOyN, 30100 Murcia, Spain
7Enviroware srl, Concorezzo, MB, Italy
8Institute of Coastal Research, Chemistry Transport Modelling Group, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
9INERIS, Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Parc Alata, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte, France
10Dept. Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
11Center of Excellence CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
12Centre for Atmospheric and Instrumentation Research (CAIR), University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, UK
13European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Reading, UK
14Ricardo Energy & Environment, Gemini Building, Fermi Avenue, Harwell, Oxon, OX11 0QR, UK
15Environmental Research Group, Kings' College London, London, UK
16Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
17Finnish Meteorological Institute, Atmospheric Composition Research Unit, Helsinki, Finland
18Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, USA
19CIEMAT. Avda. Complutense 40., 28040 Madrid, Spain
20Ramboll Environ, 773 San Marin Drive, Suite 2115, Novato, CA 94998, USA
21Computational Exposure Division, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
Abstract. The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (U.S.) for the year 2010 is modelled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). This is the first study known to use a common health assessment approach across the two continents. The modelled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 from each model are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and East Asia.

Health impacts estimated by different models can vary up to a factor of three in Europe (twelve models) and the United States (three models). In Europe, the multi-model mean number of premature deaths is calculated to be 414 000 while in the U.S., it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. In order to estimate the impact of biases coming from each model, two multi-model ensembles were produced, the first attributing an equal weight to each member of the ensemble, and the second where the subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step. The latter results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, thus giving significantly higher mortality estimates compared to available literature. This is mostly due to a 27 % increase in the domain mean PM2.5 levels, along with a slight increase in O3 by ~ 1 %. Over the U.S., the mean PM2.5 and O3 levels decrease by 11 % and 2 %, respectively, when the optimal ensemble mean is used, leading to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ~ 11 %. These differences encourage the use of optimal-reduced multi-model ensembles over traditional all model-mean ensembles, in particular for policy applications.

Finally, the role of domestic versus foreign emission sources on the related health impacts is investigated using the 20 % emission reduction scenarios applied over the source regions as defined in the frame of HTAP2. The differences are calculated based on the models that are common in the basic multi-model ensemble and the perturbation scenarios, resulting in five models in Europe and all three models in the U.S. A 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions avoids 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths in Europe and the U.S., respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American emissions foreign emissions avoids ~ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 premature deaths in the U.S. A 20 % decrease of emissions within the European source region avoids 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the East Asian emission by 20 % avoids ~ 2000 premature deaths in the U.S. These results show that the domestic emissions make the largest impacts on premature death, while foreign sources make a minor contributing to adverse impacts of air pollution.


Citation: Im, U., Brandt, J., Geels, C., Hansen, K. M., Christensen, J. H., Andersen, M. S., Solazzo, E., Kioutsioukis, I., Alyuz, U., Balzarini, A., Baro, R., Bellasio, R., Bianconi, R., Bieser, J., Colette, A., Curci, G., Farrow, A., Flemming, J., Fraser, A., Jimenez-Guerrero, P., Kitwiroon, N., Liang, C.-K., Pirovano, G., Pozzoli, L., Prank, M., Rose, R., Sokhi, R., Tuccella, P., Unal, A., Vivanco, M. G., West, J., Yarwood, G., Hogrefe, C., and Galmarini, S.: Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the frame work of AQMEII3, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-751, in review, 2017.
Ulas Im et al.
Ulas Im et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 352 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
253 95 4 352 12 2 1

Views and downloads (calculated since 27 Sep 2017)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 27 Sep 2017)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 352 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

Thereof 349 with geography defined and 3 with unknown origin.

Country # Views %
  • 1

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 22 Oct 2017
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
The impact of air pollution on human health and their costs in Europe and the United States for the year 2010 is modelled by a multi-model ensemble. In Europe, the number of premature deaths is calculated to be 414 000 while in the U.S., it is estimated to be 160 000. Health impacts estimated by individual models can vary up to a factor of three. Results show that the domestic emissions make the largest impacts on premature death, compared to foreign sources.
The impact of air pollution on human health and their costs in Europe and the United States for...
Share