Journal cover Journal topic
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-743
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
09 Oct 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Decadal evolution of ship emissions in China from 2004 to 2013 by using an integrated AIS-based approach and projection to 2040
Cheng Li1, Jens Borken-Kleefeld2, Junyu Zheng1, Zibing Yuan3, Jiamin Ou4, Yue Li5, Yanlong Wang3, and Yuanqian Xu3 1Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511442, China
2The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
3School of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
4School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
5Transport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport No. 2 Building, 6A Shuguangxili, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100028, China
Abstract. Ship emissions contribute significantly to air pollution and pose health risks to residents of coastal areas in China, but the current accounting remains incomplete and coarse due to data availability and inaccuracy in estimation method. In this study, an Automatic Identification System (AIS)-based integrated approach was developed to address this problem. This approach utilized detailed information from AIS and cargo turnover and the number of vessels calling information, thereby capable of quantifying sectoral contributions by fuel types and emissions from ports, rivers, coastal and over-the-horizon ship traffic. Based upon the established methodology, ship emissions in China from 2004 to 2013 were estimated, and those to 2040 in every five year interval under different control scenarios were projected. Results showed that for the area within 200 nautical miles (Nm) of the Chinese coast, SO2, NOx, CO, PM10, PM2.5, and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions in 2013 were 1010, 1443, 118, 107, 87 and 67 kt/yr, respectively, which doubled over these ten years. Ship source contributed ~ 10 % to the total SO2 and NOx emissions in the coastal provinces of China. Emissions from the proposed Domestic Emission Control Areas (DECAs) within 12 Nm constituted approximately 40 % of the all ship emissions along the Chinese coast, and this percentage would double when the scope is extended to 100 Nm. Ship emissions in ports accounted for about one quarter of the total emissions within 200 Nm, within which nearly 80 % of the emissions were concentrated in the top ten busiest ports of China. SO2 emissions could be reduced by 80 % in 2020 under 0.5 % global sulfur cap policy. In comparison, a similar reduction of NOx emissions would require significant technological change and would likely take several decades. This study provides solid scientific support for ship emissions control policy-making in China. It is suggested to investigate and monitor the emissions from the shipping sector in more detail in the future.

Citation: Li, C., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Zheng, J., Yuan, Z., Ou, J., Li, Y., Wang, Y., and Xu, Y.: Decadal evolution of ship emissions in China from 2004 to 2013 by using an integrated AIS-based approach and projection to 2040, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-743, in review, 2017.
Cheng Li et al.
Cheng Li et al.

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Short summary
We developed an integrated Automatic Identification System (AIS)-based approach to promote the estimation of sectoral ship emissions in China. Based upon this approach, the sector-based contributions, decadal evolution from 2004 to 2013, emission projection to 2040, and the impact of different sizes of Emission Control Area (ECA) on emission reductions were investigated, aiming at providing a solid scientific support for ship emissions control policy-making in China.
We developed an integrated Automatic Identification System (AIS)-based approach to promote the...
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