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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
03 Jul 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI simulations
Olaf Morgenstern1, Hideharu Akiyoshi2, Yousuke Yamashita2,a, Douglas E. Kinnison3, Rolando R. Garcia3, David A. Plummer4, John Scinocca5, Guang Zeng1, Eugene Rozanov6,7, Andrea Stenke7, Laura E. Revell7,8, Giovanni Pitari9, Eva Mancini9,10, Glauco Di Genova10, Sandip S. Dhomse11, and Martyn P. Chipperfield11 1National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
2National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
3National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA
4Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montréal, Canada
5CCCMA, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada
6Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos – World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
7Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
8Bodeker Scientific, Christchurch, New Zealand
9Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche, Università dell'Aquila, L'Aquila, Ital
10CETEMPS, Università dell'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
11School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
anow at: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Abstract. Ozone fields simulated for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) will be used as forcing data in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here we assess, using reference and sensitivity simulations produced for phase 1 of CCMI, the suitability of CCMI-1 model results for this process, investigating the degree of consistency amongst models regarding their responses to variations in individual forcings. We consider the influences of methane, nitrous oxide, a combination of chlorinated or brominated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), and a combination of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs). We find varying degrees of consistency in the models' responses in ozone to these individual forcings, including some considerable disagreement. In particular, the response of total-column ozone to these forcings is less consistent across the multi-model ensemble than profile comparisons. The likely cause of this is lower-stratospheric transport and dynamical responses exhibiting substantial inter-model differences. The findings imply that the ozone fields derived from CCMI-1 are subject to considerable uncertainties regarding the impacts of these anthropogenic forcings.

Citation: Morgenstern, O., Akiyoshi, H., Yamashita, Y., Kinnison, D. E., Garcia, R. R., Plummer, D. A., Scinocca, J., Zeng, G., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Revell, L. E., Pitari, G., Mancini, E., Di Genova, G., Dhomse, S. S., and Chipperfield, M. P.: Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,, in review, 2017.
Olaf Morgenstern et al.
Olaf Morgenstern et al.
Olaf Morgenstern et al.


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Short summary
We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry-climate models responds to variations in man-made climate gases and ozone-depleting substances. We find some agreement, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere, but also considerable disagreement elsewhere. Such disagreement affects the reliability of future ozone projections based on these models, and also constitutes a source of uncertainty in climate projections using prescribed ozone derived from these simulations.
We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry-climate models responds to variations...