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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-1231
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
06 Mar 2018
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This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of this manuscript was accepted for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) and is expected to appear here in due course.
Influence of anthropogenic emissions and boundary conditions on multi-model simulations of major air pollutants over Europe and North America in the framework of AQMEII3
Ulas Im1, Jesper Heile Christensen1, Camilla Geels1, Kaj Mantzius Hansen1, Jørgen Brandt1, Efisio Solazzo2, Ummugulsum Alyuz3, Alessandra Balzarini4, Rocio Baro5,a, Roberto Bellasio6, Roberto Bianconi6, Johannes Bieser7, Augustin Colette8, Gabriele Curci9,10, Aidan Farrow11, Johannes Flemming12, Andrea Fraser13, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero5, Nutthida Kitwiroon14, Peng Liu15, Uarporn Nopmongcol16, Laura Palacios-Peña5, Guido Pirovano4, Luca Pozzoli2, Marje Prank17,18, Rebecca Rose13, Ranjeet Sokhi11, Paolo Tuccella9,10, Alper Unal3, Marta G. Vivanco8,19, Greg Yarwood16, Christian Hogrefe20, and Stefano Galmarini2 1Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000, Roskilde, Denmark
2European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VA), Italy
3Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
4Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico (RSE SpA), Milan, Italy
5University of Murcia, Department of Physics, Physics of the Earth, Campus de Espinardo, Facultad de Química, 30100 Murcia, Spain
6Enviroware srl, Concorezzo, MB, Italy
7Institute of Coastal Research, Chemistry Transport Modelling Group, Helmholtz-Zentrum, Geesthacht, Germany
8INERIS, Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Parc Alata, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte, France
9Dept. Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
10Center of Excellence CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
11Centre for Atmospheric and Instrumentation Research (CAIR), University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, UK
12European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Reading, UK
13Ricardo Energy & Environment, Gemini Building, Fermi Avenue, Harwell, Oxon, OX11 0QR, UK
14Environmental Research Group, Kings' College London, London, UK
15NRResearch Associate at Computational Exposure Division, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
16Ramboll Environ, 773 San Marin Drive, Suite 2115, Novato, CA 94998, USA
17Finnish Meteorological Institute, Atmospheric Composition Research Unit, Helsinki, Finland
18Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, USA
19CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense 40, 28040 Madrid, Spain
20Computational Exposure Division, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
anow at: Section Environmental Meteorology, Division Customer Service, ZAMG e Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, 1190 Wien, Austria
Abstract. In the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3), and as contribution to the second phase of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP2) activities for Europe and North America, the impacts of a 20 % decrease of global and regional anthropogenic emissions on surface air pollutant levels in 2010 are simulated by an international community of regional scale air quality modeling groups, using different state-of-the-art chemistry and transport models (CTM). The emission perturbations at the global level, as well as over the HTAP2-defined regions of Europe, North America and East Asia are first simulated by the global Composition Integrated Forecasting System (C-IFS) model from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which provides boundary conditions to the various regional CTMs participating in AQMEII3. On top of the perturbed boundary conditions, the regional CTMs used the same set of perturbed emissions within the regional domain for the different perturbation scenarios that introduce a 20 % reduction of anthropogenic emissions globally as well as over the HTAP2-defined regions of Europe, North America and East Asia.

Results show that the largest impacts over both domains are simulated in response to the global emission perturbation, mainly due to the impact of domestic emissions reductions. The responses of NO2, SO2 and PM concentrations to a 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions are almost linear (~ 20 % decrease) within the global perturbation scenario with however, large differences in the geographical distribution of the effect. NO2, CO and SO2 levels are strongly affected over the emission hot spots. O3 levels generally decrease in all scenarios by up to ~ 1 % over Europe, with increases over the hot spot regions, in particular in the Benelux region, by an increase up to ~ 6 % due to the reduced effect of NOx-titration. O3 daily maximum of 8-hour running average decreases in all scenarios over Europe, by up to ~ 1 %. Over the North American domain, the central-to-eastern part and the western coast of the US experience the largest response to emission perturbations. Similar but slightly smaller responses are found when domestic emissions are reduced. The impact of inter-continental transport is relatively small over both domains, however, still noticeable particularly close to the boundaries. The impact is noticeable up to a few percent, for the western parts of the North American domain in response to the emission reductions over East Asia. O3 daily maximum of 8-hour running average decreases in all scenarios over North Europe by up to ~ 5 %. Much larger reductions are calculated over North America compared to Europe.

In addition, values of the Response to Extra-Regional Emission Reductions (RERER) metric have been calculated in order to quantify the differences in the strengths of non-local source contributions to different species among the different models. We found large RERER values for O3 (~ 0.8) over both Europe and North America, indicating a large contribution from non-local sources, while for other pollutants including particles, low RERER values reflect a predominant control by local sources.

Citation: Im, U., Christensen, J. H., Geels, C., Hansen, K. M., Brandt, J., Solazzo, E., Alyuz, U., Balzarini, A., Baro, R., Bellasio, R., Bianconi, R., Bieser, J., Colette, A., Curci, G., Farrow, A., Flemming, J., Fraser, A., Jimenez-Guerrero, P., Kitwiroon, N., Liu, P., Nopmongcol, U., Palacios-Peña, L., Pirovano, G., Pozzoli, L., Prank, M., Rose, R., Sokhi, R., Tuccella, P., Unal, A., Vivanco, M. G., Yarwood, G., Hogrefe, C., and Galmarini, S.: Influence of anthropogenic emissions and boundary conditions on multi-model simulations of major air pollutants over Europe and North America in the framework of AQMEII3, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-1231, in review, 2018.
Ulas Im et al.
Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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RC1: 'Review report of Im et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Apr 2018 Printer-friendly Version 
AC1: 'Resposne to Comments from Reviewer 1', Ulas Im, 11 Jun 2018 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC2: 'Review of acp-2017-1231', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Apr 2018 Printer-friendly Version 
AC2: 'Response to Reviewer 2', Ulas Im, 11 Jun 2018 Printer-friendly Version 
Ulas Im et al.

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Short summary
We evaluate the impact of global and regional anthropogenic emission reductions on major air pollutant levels over Europe and North America, using a multi-model ensemble of regional chemistry and transport models. Results show that ozone levels are largely driven by long-range transport over both continents while other pollutants such as carbon monoxide or aerosols are mainly controlled by domestic sources. Use of multi model ensembles can help to reduce the uncertainties in individual models.
We evaluate the impact of global and regional anthropogenic emission reductions on major air...
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