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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
24 Jan 2018
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
The Impact of Future Emission Policies on Tropospheric Ozone using a Parameterised Approach
Steven Turnock1, Oliver Wild2, Frank Dentener3, Yanko Davila4, Louisa Emmons5, Johannes Flemming6, Gerd Folberth1, Daven Henze4, Jan Jonson7, Terry Keating8, Sudo Kengo9,10, Meiyun Lin11,12, Marianne Lund13, Simone Tilmes4, and Fiona O'Connor1 1Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
2Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
3European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
4Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
5National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
6European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
7EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
8U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington D.C., USA
9Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
10Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
11Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, USA
12NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA
13Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
Abstract. This study quantifies future changes in tropospheric ozone (O3) using a simple parameterisation of source-receptor relationships based on simulations from a range of models participating in the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF-HTAP) experiments. Surface and tropospheric O3 changes are calculated globally and across 16 regions from perturbations in precursor emissions (NOx, CO, VOCs) and methane (CH4) abundance. A source attribution is provided for each source region along with an estimate of uncertainty based on the spread of the results from the models. Tests against model simulations using HadGEM2-ES confirm that the approaches used within the parameterisation are valid. The O3 response to changes in CH4 abundance is slightly larger in TF-HTAP Phase 2 than in the TF-HTAP Phase 1 assessment (2010) and provides further evidence that controlling CH4 is important for limiting future O3 concentrations. Different treatments of chemistry and meteorology in models remains one of the largest uncertainties in calculating the O3 response to perturbations in CH4 abundance and precursor emissions, particularly over the Middle East and South Asian regions. Emission changes for the future ECLIPSE scenarios and a subset of preliminary Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) indicate that surface O3 concentrations will increase by 1 to 8 ppbv in 2050 across different regions. Source attribution analysis highlights the growing importance of CH4 in the future under current legislation. A global tropospheric O3 radiative forcing of +0.07 W m−2 from 2010 to 2050 is predicted using the ECLIPSE scenarios and SSPs, based solely on changes in CH4 abundance and tropospheric O3 precursor emissions and neglecting any influence of climate change. Current legislation is shown to be inadequate in limiting the future degradation of surface ozone air quality and enhancement of near-term climate warming. More stringent future emission controls provide a large reduction in both surface O3 concentrations and O3 radiative forcing. The parameterisation provides a simple tool to highlight the different impacts and associated uncertainties of local and hemispheric emission control strategies on both surface air quality and the near-term climate forcing by tropospheric O3.
Citation: Turnock, S., Wild, O., Dentener, F., Davila, Y., Emmons, L., Flemming, J., Folberth, G., Henze, D., Jonson, J., Keating, T., Kengo, S., Lin, M., Lund, M., Tilmes, S., and O'Connor, F.: The Impact of Future Emission Policies on Tropospheric Ozone using a Parameterised Approach, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,, in review, 2018.
Steven Turnock et al.
Steven Turnock et al.
Steven Turnock et al.


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Short summary
A simple parameterisation was developed in this study to provide a rapid assessment of the impacts and uncertainties associated with future emission control strategies by predicting changes to surface ozone air quality and near-term climate forcing of ozone. Future emissions scenarios based on currently implemented legislation are shown to worsen surface ozone air quality and enhance near-term climate warming, with changes in methane becoming increasingly important in the future.
A simple parameterisation was developed in this study to provide a rapid assessment of the...