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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-1033
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 30 Nov 2017

Research article | 30 Nov 2017

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This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of this manuscript was accepted for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) and is expected to appear here in due course.

Extremal Dependence between Temperature and Ozone over the Continental U.S.

Pakawat Phalitnonkiat1, Wenxiu Sun2, Mircea D. Grigoriu3, Peter G. M. Hess4, Gennady Samorodnitsky5, and Simone Tilmes6 Pakawat Phalitnonkiat et al.
  • 1Center for Applied Math, Cornell University
  • 2Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University
  • 3School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University
  • 4Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University
  • 5School of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Cornell University
  • 6Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory

Abstract. The co-occurrence of heat waves and pollution events and the resulting high mortality rates emphasizes the importance of the co-occurrence of pollution and temperature extremes. Through the use of extreme value theory and other statistical methods ozone and temperature extremes and their joint occurrence are analyzed over the United States during the summer months (JJA) using Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) measurement data and simulations of the present and future climate and chemistry in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) CAM4-chem. Three simulations using CAM4-chem were analyzed: the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) reference experiment using specified dynamics (REFC1SD) between 1992–2010, a 25-year present-day simulation branched off the CCMI REFC2 simulation in the year 2000 and a 25-year future simulation branched off the CCMI REFC2 simulation in 2100. The latter two simulations differed in their concentration of carbon dioxide (representative of the years 2000 and 2100) but were otherwise identical. A new metric is developed to measure the joint extremal dependence of ozone and temperature by evaluating the spectral dependence of their extremes. Two regions of the U.S. give the strongest measured extreme dependence of ozone and temperature: the northeast and the southeast. The simulations do not capture the relationship between temperature and ozone over the northeast but do simulate a strong dependence of ozone on extreme temperatures over the southeast. In general, the simulations of ozone and temperature do not capture the width of the measured temperature and ozone distributions. While on average the future increase in the 90th percentile temperature and the 90th percentile ozone slightly exceed the mean increase over the continental U.S., in many regions the width of the temperature and ozone distributions decrease. The location of future increases in the tails of the ozone distribution are weakly related to those of temperature with a correlation of 0.3.

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Pakawat Phalitnonkiat et al.
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The co-occurrence of heat waves and pollution events and the resulting high mortality rates emphasizes the importance of the co-occurrence of pollution and temperature extremes. We analyze ozone and temperature extremes and their joint occurrence over the United States during the summer months (JJA) in measurement data and in model simulations of the present and future climates.
The co-occurrence of heat waves and pollution events and the resulting high mortality rates...
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