the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
North Atlantic Oscillation model projections and influence on tracer transport
Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate variability of the Northern Hemisphere with significant consequences on pollutant transport. We study the influence of the NAO on the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants in the near past and in the future by considering simulations performed by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) general circulation model. We analyze two model runs: a simulation with circulation dynamics nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data over a period of 35 years (1979–2013) and a simulation with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) boundary conditions over 150 years (1950–2099). The model is shown to reproduce the NAO spatial and temporal variability and to be comparable with observations. We find that the decadal variability in the NAO, which has been pronounced since 1950s until 1990, will continue to dominate in the future considering decadal periods, although no significant trends are present in the long term projection (100–150 years horizon). We do not find in the model projections any significant temporal trend of the NAO for the future, meaning that neither positive or negative phases will dominate. Tracers with idealised decay and emissions are considered to investigate the NAO effects on transport; it is shown that during the positive phase of the NAO, the transport from North America towards northern Europe is stronger and pollutants are shifted northwards over the Arctic and southwards over the Mediterranean and North Africa, with two distinct areas of removal and stagnation of pollutants.
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Preprint
(5899 KB)
- Revised submission
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Supplement
(772 KB)
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This preprint has been withdrawn.
- Preprint
(5899 KB) - Metadata XML
- Revised submission
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Supplement
(772 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
Interactive discussion
- RC C10999: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Jan 2016
- RC C11182: 'Review of North Atlantic Oscillation model projections and influence on tracer transport', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 Jan 2016
- RC C11267: 'Review of: “North Atlantic Oscillation model projections and influence on tracer transport” by Bacer et al.', Anonymous Referee #3, 08 Jan 2016
- AC C11595: 'Reply to Referees', Sara Bacer, 15 Jan 2016
Interactive discussion
- RC C10999: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Jan 2016
- RC C11182: 'Review of North Atlantic Oscillation model projections and influence on tracer transport', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 Jan 2016
- RC C11267: 'Review of: “North Atlantic Oscillation model projections and influence on tracer transport” by Bacer et al.', Anonymous Referee #3, 08 Jan 2016
- AC C11595: 'Reply to Referees', Sara Bacer, 15 Jan 2016
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T. Christoudias
A. Pozzer
This preprint has been withdrawn.
- Preprint
(5899 KB) - Metadata XML
- Revised submission
-
Supplement
(772 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote