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https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-8-2163-2008
© Author(s) 2008. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-8-2163-2008
© Author(s) 2008. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
06 Feb 2008
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal ACP. A revision for further review has not been submitted.
Global ozone and air quality: a multi-model assessment of risks to human health and crops
Abstract. Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, eighteen atmospheric models from the U.S., Europe, and Japan calculated present (2000) and future (2030) concentrations of ozone at the Earth's surface with hourly temporal resolution. Comparison of model results with surface ozone measurements in 14 world regions indicates that levels and seasonality of surface ozone in North America and Europe are characterized well by global models, with annual average biases typically within 5–10 nmol/mol. However, comparison with rather sparse observations over some regions suggest that most models overestimate annual ozone by 15–20 nmol/mol in some locations. Two scenarios from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and one from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) have been implemented in the models. This study focuses on changes in near-surface ozone and their effects on human health and vegetation. Different indices and air quality standards are used to characterise air quality. We show that often the calculated changes in the different indices are closely inter-related. Indices using lower thresholds are more consistent between the models, and are recommended for global model analysis. Our analysis indicates that currently about two-thirds of the regions considered do not meet health air quality standards, whereas only 2–4 regions remain below the threshold. Calculated air quality exceedances show moderate deterioration by 2030 if current emissions legislation is followed and slight improvements if current emissions reduction technology is used optimally. For the "business as usual" scenario severe air quality problems are predicted. We show that model simulations of air quality indices are particularly sensitive to how well ozone is represented, and improved accuracy is needed for future projections. Additional measurements are needed to allow a more quantitative assessment of the risks to human health and vegetation from changing levels of surface ozone.
How to cite. Ellingsen, K., Gauss, M., Van Dingenen, R., Dentener, F. J., Emberson, L., Fiore, A. M., Schultz, M. G., Stevenson, D. S., Ashmore, M. R., Atherton, C. S., Bergmann, D. J., Bey, I., Butler, T., Drevet, J., Eskes, H., Hauglustaine, D. A., Isaksen, I. S. A., Horowitz, L. W., Krol, M., Lamarque, J. F., Lawrence, M. G., van Noije, T., Pyle, J., Rast, S., Rodriguez, J., Savage, N., Strahan, S., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., and Wild, O.: Global ozone and air quality: a multi-model assessment of risks to human health and crops, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 8, 2163–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-8-2163-2008, 2008.
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Status: closed (peer review stopped)
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AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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RC S1044: 'Reviewer Comment', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Mar 2008
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RC S1054: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Mar 2008
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AC S2208: 'Short author comment', Michael Gauss, 30 Apr 2008
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
- Printer-friendly version
- Supplement
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RC S1044: 'Reviewer Comment', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Mar 2008
-
RC S1054: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Mar 2008
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AC S2208: 'Short author comment', Michael Gauss, 30 Apr 2008
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Saved
Latest update: 18 Apr 2024
K. Ellingsen
University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, Oslo, Norway
M. Gauss
University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, Oslo, Norway
R. Van Dingenen
Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
F. J. Dentener
Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
L. Emberson
Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Heslington, UK
A. M. Fiore
NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ, USA
M. G. Schultz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
D. S. Stevenson
University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences, Edinburgh, UK
M. R. Ashmore
Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Heslington, UK
C. S. Atherton
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Atmospheric Science Division, Livermore, USA
D. J. Bergmann
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Atmospheric Science Division, Livermore, USA
I. Bey
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland
T. Butler
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
J. Drevet
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland
H. Eskes
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands
D. A. Hauglustaine
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
I. S. A. Isaksen
University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, Oslo, Norway
L. W. Horowitz
NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ, USA
M. Krol
now at: Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
J. F. Lamarque
National Center of Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Division, Boulder, CO, USA
M. G. Lawrence
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
T. van Noije
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands
J. Pyle
University of Cambridge, Centre of Atmospheric Science, UK
S. Rast
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
J. Rodriguez
Goddard Earth Science & Technology Center (GEST), Maryland, Washington, DC, USA
N. Savage
University of Cambridge, Centre of Atmospheric Science, UK
S. Strahan
Goddard Earth Science & Technology Center (GEST), Maryland, Washington, DC, USA
K. Sudo
Frontier Research Center for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
S. Szopa
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
O. Wild
Frontier Research Center for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
now at: Dept. of Environmental Science, University of Lancaster, Lancaster, UK