Journal cover Journal topic
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/acp-2016-1049
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review article
13 Feb 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Assessing the uncertainty of soil-moisture impact on convective precipitation by an ensemble approach
Olga Henneberg1, Felix Ament2, and Verena Grützun2 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
2Meteorological Institute, Uni Hamburg
Abstract. Soil moisture influences the occurrence of convective precipitation. Therefore an accurate knowledge of soil moisture might be useful for an improved prediction of convective cells. But still the model uncertainty overshadows the impact of soil moisture in realistic cases even in 1 km resolution and therefore convection resolving models. Only drastic soil moisture changes can exhibit the model uncertainties but the systematic behaviour is still complex and depends strongly on the strength of soil moisture change.

Here we performed seven experiments with modified soil moisture using an ensemble approach for each experiment. Only a 50 % soil moisture enhancement and a complete dried soil impact precipitation patterns considerably in structure, amplitude and location in certain analysis areas. Both, the enhanced and reduced soil moisture result in a reduced precipitation rate. Replacing the soil moisture by a realistic field from different days influences the precipitation insignificantly. We point out the need for uncertainty estimations in soil moisture studies.


Citation: Henneberg, O., Ament, F., and Grützun, V.: Assessing the uncertainty of soil-moisture impact on convective precipitation by an ensemble approach, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., doi:10.5194/acp-2016-1049, in review, 2017.
Olga Henneberg et al.
Olga Henneberg et al.
Olga Henneberg et al.

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Short summary
Soil moisture influences the occurrence of convective precipitation. An accurate knowledge of soil moisture might improve the prediction of convective cells. But the model uncertainty overshadows the impact of soil moisture in convection resolving models. Only drastic soil moisture changes can exhibit the model uncertainties. Both, the enhanced and reduced soil moisture result in a reduced precipitation rate. We point out the need for uncertainty estimations in soil moisture studies.
Soil moisture influences the occurrence of convective precipitation. An accurate knowledge of...
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