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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
06 Feb 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Projected Changes in Haze Pollution Potential in China: An Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations
Zhenyu Han1, Botao Zhou1,2, Ying Xu1, Jia Wu1, and Ying Shi1 1National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
2Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
Abstract. Based on the dynamic downscaling by the regional climate model RegCM4 from three CMIP5 global models under the historical and the RCP4.5 simulations, this article evaluated the performance of the RegCM4 downscaling simulations on the air environment carrying capacity (AEC) and weak ventilation days (WVD) in China, which are applied to measure haze pollution potential. Their changes during the middle and the end of the 21st century were also projected. The evaluations show that the RegCM4 downscaling simulations can generally capture the observed features of the AEC and WVD distributions over the period 1986–2005. The projections indicate that the annual AEC tends to decrease and the annual WVD tends to increase almost over the whole country except central China, concurrent with greater change by the late of the 21st century than by the middle of the 21st century. It suggests that annual haze pollution potential would be enlarged under the RCP4.5 scenario as compared to the present. For seasonal change in the four main economic zones of China, it is projected consistently that there would be a higher probability of haze pollution risk over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in winter and over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) zone in spring and summer in the context of the warming scenario. Over Northeast China (NEC), future climate change might reduce the AEC or increase the WVD throughout the whole year, which favors the occurrence of haze pollution and thus the haze pollution risk would be aggravated. Relative contribution of different components related to the AEC change further indicates that changes of the boundary layer depth and the wind speed play the leading roles in the AEC change over the BTH and NEC regions. In addition to those two factors, the precipitation change also exerts dominant impacts on the ACE change over the YRD and PRD zones.

Citation: Han, Z., Zhou, B., Xu, Y., Wu, J., and Shi, Y.: Projected Changes in Haze Pollution Potential in China: An Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., doi:10.5194/acp-2016-1014, in review, 2017.
Zhenyu Han et al.
Zhenyu Han et al.
Zhenyu Han et al.


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