Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 9 2 2009 10.5194/acpd-9-7555-2009 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/7555/2009/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/7555/2009/acpd-9-7555-2009.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/7555/2009/acpd-9-7555-2009.pdf 7555 7588 2009-03-23 Influence of meteorological variability on interannual variations of the springtime boundary layer ozone over Japan during 1981–2005 J. Kurokawa kurokawa.junichi@nies.go.jp T. Ohara I. Uno M. Hayasaki H. Tanimoto National Institute for Environmental Studies, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Kasuga, Fukuoka, Japan Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Yayoi, Inage, Chiba, Japan We investigated the influence of meteorological variability on the interannual variation of the springtime boundary layer ozone over Japan during 1981–2005 by multiyear simulations with the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system and the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS). CMAQ/REAS generally reproduced the observed interannual variability of springtime ozone over Japan, showing year-to-year variations larger than the annual rate of increase of the long-term trend. We then analyzed the influence of the interannual variation of meteorological fields in simulated results by using the fixed emissions for 2000 and meteorology data for each year. As a reference parameter, we calculated the area-weighted surface pressure anomaly over the Pacific Ocean east of Japan. When the anomaly has a large negative value, polluted air masses from continental Asia tend to be transported directly to Japan by westerly winds. In contrast, when the anomaly has a large positive value, the influences of the outflow from continental Asia tends to be small because the westerly components of wind fields around Japan are comparatively weak. Instead, southerly winds are relatively strong and transport clean air masses from the Pacific Ocean to Japan. Consequently, springtime ozone over Japan is higher (lower) than in ordinary years when the anomaly has a large negative (positive) value. In general, the interannual variation of springtime ozone over Japan is sensitive to the outflow from continental Asia. We also found some correlation between springtime ozone over Japan and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, indicating that higher and lower springtime ozone over Japan are related to La Niña and El Niño, respectively. Differences in the meridional displacement and diversity of cyclone tracks near Japan between El Niño and La Niña years may be responsible for interannual variations in the springtime boundary layer ozone over Japan. Akimoto,~H.: Global air quality and pollution, Science, 302, 1716–1719, 2003. Binkowski,~F S. and Shankar,~U.: The regional particulate matter model 1. Model description and preliminary results,~J. Geophys. Res., 100(D12), 26191–26209, 1995. Byun,~D W. and Schere,~K L.: Review of the governing equations, computational algorithms, and other components of the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, Appl. Mech. Rev., 59, 51–77, 2006. Carter,~W P L.: Documentation of the SAPRAC-99 chemical mechanism for VOC reactivity assessment, final report to California Air Resource Board, Contract 92-329 and 95-308, California Air Resource Board, Sacramento, 2000. Doherty,~R M., Stevenson,~D S., Johnson,~C E., Collins,~W J., and Sanderson,~M G.: Tropospheric ozone and El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Influence of atmospheric dynamics, biomass burning emissions, and future climate change,~J. Geophys. Res., 111, D19304, doi:10.1029/2005JD006849, 2006. Guenther,~A., Hewitt,~C N., Erickson,~D., Fall,~R., Geron,~C., Graedel,~T., Harley,~P., Klinger,~L., Lerdau,~M., McKay,~W A., Pierce,~T., Scholes,~B., Steinbrecher,~R., Tallamraju,~R., Taylor,~J., and Zimmerman,~P.: A~global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions,~J. Geophys. Res., 100(D5), 8873–8892, 1995. He,~Y J., Uno,~I., Wang,~Z F., Pochanart,~P., Li,~J., and Akimoto,~H.: Significant impact of the East Asia monsoon on ozone seasonal behavior in the boundary layer of Eastern China and the west Pacific region, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7543–7555, 2008. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon,~S., Qin, D., Maninng, M., et al., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 2007. International Energy Agency: Energy Balances of OCED Countries and Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries [CD-ROM], Paris, 2007. Kalnay,~E., Kanamitsu,~M., Kistler,~R., Collins,~W., Deaven,~D., Gandin,~L., Iredell,~M., Saha,~S., White,~G., Woollen,~J., Zhu,~Y., Leetmaa,~A., Reynolds,~R., Chelliah,~M., Ebisuzaki,~W., Higgins,~W., Janowiak,~J., Mo,~K C., Ropelewski,~C., Wang,~J., Jenne,~R., and Joseph,~D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471, 1996. Kistler,~R., Kalnay,~E., Collins,~W., Saha,~S., White,~G., Woollen,~J., Chelliah,~M., Ebisuzaki,~W., Kanamitsu,~M., Kousky,~V., van den Dool,~H., Jenne,~R., and Fiorino,~M.: The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 247–267, 2001. Koumoutsaris,~S., Bey,~I., Generoso,~S., and Thouret,~V.: Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the interannual variability of tropospheric ozone in the northern midlatitudes,~J. Geophys. Res., 113, D19301, doi:10.1029/2007JD009753, 2008. Liu,~H., Jacob,~D J., Bey,~I., Yantosca,~R M., Duncan,~B N., and Sachse,~G W.: Transport pathways for Asian pollution outflow over the Pacific: Interannual and seasonal variations,~J. Geophys. Res., 108(D20), 8786, doi:10.1029/2002JD003102, 2003. Liu,~J., Mauzerall,~D L., and Horowitz,~L W.: Analysis of seasonal and interannual variability in transpacific transport,~J. Geophys. Res., 110, D04302, doi:10.1029/2004JD005207, 2005. Mauzerall,~D L., Sultan,~B., Kim,~N., and Bradford,~D F.: \chemNO_x emissions from large point sources: variability in ozone production, resulting health damages and economic costs, Atmos. Environ., 39, 2851–2866, 2005. Mukai,~H., Hashimoto,~S., and Tanimoto,~H.: Standards for ozone and green house gases monitoring in Japan (in Japanese), Proceedings of the 48th Annual Meeting of Japan Society for Atmospheric Environment, 208–211, 2007. Naja,~M. and Akimoto,~H.: Contribution of regional pollution and long-range transport to the Asia-Pacific region: Analysis of long-term ozonesonde data over Japan,~J. Geophys. Res., 109, D21306, doi:10.1029/2004JD004687, 2004. Nenes,~A., Pandis,~S N., and Pilinis,~C.: ISORROPIA: A~new thermodynamic equilibrium model for multiphase multicomponent inorganic aerosols, Aquat. Geochem., 4, 123–152, 1998. Ohara,~T., Akimoto,~H., Kurokawa,~J., Horii,~N., Yamaji,~K., Yan,~X., and Hayasaka,~T.: An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980–2020, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 4419–4444, 2007. Ohara,~T., Yamaji,~K., Uno,~I., Tanimoto,~H., Sugata,~S., Nagashima,~T., Kurokawa,~J., Horii,~N., and Akimoto,~H.: Long-term simulations of surface ozone in East Asia during 1980–2020 with CMAQ and REAS, edited by Borrego,~C. and Miranda,~A I., NATO Science for peace and security series – C: Environmental Security, Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XIX, 136–144, ISBN: 978-1-4020-8452-2, Springer, 2008. Onogi,~K., Tsutsui,~J., Koide,~H., Sakamoto,~M., Kobayashi,~S., Hatushika,~H., Matsumoto,~T., Yamazaki,~N., Kamahori,~H., Takahashi,~K., Kadokura,~S., Wada,~K., Kato,~K., Oyama,~R., Ose,~T., Mannoji,~N., and Taira,~R.: The JRA-25 Reanalysis,~J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 369–432, 2007. Ordóñez,~C., Brunner,~D., Staehelin,~J., Hadjinicolaou,~P., Pyle,~J A., Jonas,~M., Wernli,~H., and Prévôt,~A S H.: Strong influence of lowermost stratospheric ozone on lower tropospheric background ozone changes over Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07805, doi:10.1029/2006GL029113, 2007. Pielke,~R A., Cotton,~W R., Walko,~R L., Tremback,~C J., Lyons,~W A., Grasso,~L D., Nicholls,~M E., Moran,~M D., Wesley,~D A., Lee,~T J., and Copeland,~J H.: A~comprehensive meteorological modeling system – RAMS, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 49, 69–91, 1992. Pochanart,~P., Hirokawa,~J., Kajii,~Y., Akimoto,~H., and Nakao,~M.: Influence of regional-scale anthropogenic activity in northeast Asia on seasonal variations of surface ozone and carbon monoxide observed at Oki, Japan,~J. Geophys. Res., 104(D3), 3621–3631, 1999. Schell,~B., Ackermann,~I J., Hass,~H., Binkowski,~F S., and Ebel,~A.: Modeling the formation of secondary organic aerosol within a~comprehensive air quality model system,~J. Geophys. Res., 106(D22), 28275–28293, 2001. Serreze,~M C.: Climatological aspects of cyclone development and decay in the Arctic, Atmos.-Ocean, 33, 1–23, 1995. Serreze,~M C., Carse,~F., and Barry,~R G.: Icelandic low cyclone activity: Climatological features, linkages with the NAO, and relationships with recent changes in the northern hemisphere circulation,~J. Climate, 10(3), 453–464, 1997. Streets,~D G., Bond,~T C., Carmichael,~G R., Fernandes,~S D., Fu,~Q., He,~D., Klimont,~Z., Nelson,~S M., Tsai,~N Y., Wang,~M Q., Woo,~J.-H., and Yarber,~K F.: An inventory of gaseous and primary aerosol emission in Asia in the year 2000,~J. Geophys. Res., 108(D21), 8809, doi:10.1029/2002JD003093, 2003. Sudo,~K., Takahashi,~M., Kurokawa,~J., and Akimoto,~H.: CHASER: A~global chemical model of the troposphere: 1. Model description,~J. Geophys. Res., 107(D17), 4339, doi:10.1029/2001JD001113, 2002. Tanimoto,~H., Sawa,~Y., Matsueda,~H., Uno,~I., Ohara,~T., Yamaji,~K., Kurokawa,~J., and Yonemura,~S.: Significant latitudinal gradient in the surface ozone spring maximum over East Asia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L21805, doi:10.1029/2005GL023514, 2005. Terao,~Y., Logan,~J A., Douglass,~A R., and Stolarski,~R S.: Contribution of stratospheric ozone to the interannual variability of tropospheric ozone in the northern extratropics,~J. Geophys. Res., 113, D18309, doi:10.1029/2008JD009854, 2008. United Nations: Statistical Yearbook, issue 49, New York, 2005. United Nations: Statistical Yearbook, issue 50, New York, 2006. Uno,~I., Ohara,~T., Sugata,~S., Kurokawa,~J., Furuhashi,~N., Yamaji,~K., Tanimoto,~N., Yumimoto,~K., and Uematsu,~M.: Development of the RAMS/CMAQ Asian Scale Chemical Transport Modeling System (in Japanese), J. Jpn. Soc. Atmos. Environ., 40, 148–164, 2005. Wang,~X. and Mauzerall,~D L.: Characterizing distributions of surface ozone and its impact on grain production in China, Japan and South Korea: 1990 and 2020, Atmos. Environ., 38, 4383–4402, 2004. Wessel,~P. and Smith,~W H F.: New, improved version of generic mapping tools released, EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 79(47), 579, 1998. Yamaji,~K., Ohara,~T., Uno,~I., Tanimoto,~H., Kurokawa,~J., and Akimoto,~H.: Analysis of the seasonal variation of ozone in the boundary layer in East Asia using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model: What controls surface ozone levels over Japan? Atmos. Environ., 40, 1856–1868, 2006. Yamaji,~K., Ohara,~T., Uno,~I., Kurokawa,~J., Pochanart,~P., and Akimoto,~H.: Future prediction of surface ozone over east Asia using Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System and Regional Emission Inventory in Asia,~J. Geophys. Res., 113, D08306, doi:10.1029/2007JD008663, 2008. Zhang,~M G., Xu,~Y., Uno,~I., and Akimoto,~H.: A~numerical study of tropospheric ozone in the springtime in East Asia, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 21(2), 163–170, 2004.