ACPD Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ACPD 1680-7375 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acpd-9-23419-2009 Ozone response to emission changes: a modeling study during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO campaign Song J. 1 2 Lei W. 1 2 Bei N. 1 Zavala M. 1 de Foy B. 3 Volkamer R. 2 4 Cardenas B. 5 Zheng J. 6 Zhang R. 6 Molina L. T. 1 2 Molina Center for Energy and the Environment, CA, USA Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MA, USA Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, USA Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA National Institute of Ecology (INE), Mexico Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, TX, USA 03 11 2009 9 6 23419 23463 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/23419/2009/acpd-9-23419-2009.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/23419/2009/acpd-9-23419-2009.pdf

The sensitivity of ozone production to precursor emissions was investigated under five different meteorological conditions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO field campaign using the gridded photochemical model CAMx driven by observation-nudged WRF meteorology. Precursor emissions were constrained by the comprehensive data from the field campaign and the routine ambient air quality monitoring network. Simulated plume mixing and transport were examined by comparing with measurements from the G-1 aircraft during the campaign. The observed concentrations of ozone precursors and ozone were well reproduced by the model. The effects of reducing precursor emissions on urban ozone production were performed for three representative emission control strategies. A 50% reduction in VOC emissions led to 7 to 22 ppb decrease in daily maximum ozone concentrations, while a 50% reduction in NO<sub>x</sub> emissions leads to 4 to 21 ppb increase, and 50% reductions in both NO<sub>x</sub> and VOC emission decrease the daily maximum ozone concentrations up to 10 ppb. These results along with a chemical indicator analysis using the chemical production ratios of H<sub>2</sub>O<sub>2</sub> to HNO<sub>3</sub> demonstrate that the MCMA urban core region is VOC-limited for all meteorological episodes, which is consistent with the results from MCMA-2003 field campaign; however the degree of the VOC-sensitivity is higher in the MCMA-2006 due to lower VOC/NO<sub>x</sub> emission ratio and VOC reactivity. Ozone formation in the surrounding mountain/rural area is mostly NO<sub>x</sub>-limited, but can be VOC-limited, and the range of the NO<sub>x</sub>-limited or VOC-limited areas depends on meteorology.

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