Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 9 5 2009 10.5194/acpd-9-19351-2009 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/19351/2009/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/19351/2009/acpd-9-19351-2009.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/19351/2009/acpd-9-19351-2009.pdf 19351 19385 2009-09-17 Objective assessment of ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations A. Yu. Karpechko a.karpechko@uea.ac.uk N. P. Gillett B. Hassler K. H. Rosenlof E. Rozanov Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, UK Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Canada National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, USA Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland Physical-Meteorological Observatory/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland Stratospheric ozone recovery is expected to drive pronounced trends in atmospheric temperature and circulation from the stratosphere to the troposphere in the 21st century, but coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) vary widely in their predictions of future ozone evolution. In order to assess which models might be expected to better simulate future ozone evaluation, we assess the ability of twelve CCMs to simulate observed ozone climatology and trends and rank the models according to their errors averaged across the individual diagnostics chosen. According to our analysis no one model performs better than the others in all the diagnostics; however, combining errors in individual diagnostics into one metric of model performance allows us to objectively rank the models. The multi-model average shows better overall agreement with the observations than any individual model. Based on this analysis we conclude that the multi-model average ozone projection presents the best estimate of future ozone evolution. Our results also demonstrate a sensitivity of the analysis to the choice of reference data set for vertical ozone distribution over the Antarctic, highlighting the constraints that large observational uncertainty imposes on such model verification. Akiyoshi,~H., Sugita,~T., Kanzawa,~H., and Kawamoto,~N.: Ozone perturbations in the Arctic summer lower stratosphere as a~reflection of NO_x chemistry and planetary scale wave activity, J Geophys. Res., 109, D03304, doi:10.1029/2003JD003632, 2004. Austin,~J., Wilson,~R J., Li,~F., and Vomel,~H.: Evolution of water vapor concentrations and stratospheric age of air in coupled chemistry-climate model simulations, J Atmos. Sci., 64, 905–921, 2006. Bracegirdle,~T J., Connolley,~W M., and Turner,~J.: Antarctic climate change over the twenty first century, J Geophys. Res., 113, D03103, doi:10.1029/2007JD008933, 2008. Brühl,~C., Crutzen,~P J., and Grooß,~J U.: High-latitude, summertime NO_x activation and seasonal ozone decline in the lower stratosphere: Model calculations based on observations by HALOE on UARS, J Geophys. Res., 103, 3587–3597, 1998. Cai,~W., Shi,~G., and Li,~Y.: Multidecadal fluctuations of winter rainfall over southwest Western Australia simulated in the CSIRO Mark~3 coupled model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12701, doi:10.1029/2005GL022712, 2005. Connolley,~W M. and Bracegirdle,~T J.: An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, doi:10.1029/2007GL031648, 2007. Dall'Amico, M, Gray, L. J., Rosenlof, K. H., Scaife, A. A., Shine, K. P., and Stott, P. A.: Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO, Clim. Dynam., doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0604-x, in press, 2009. Dameris,~M., Grewe,~V., Ponater,~M., Deckert,~R., Eyring,~V., Mager,~F., Matthes,~S., Schnadt,~C., Stenke,~A., Steil,~B., Brühl,~C., and Giorgetta,~M A.: Long-term changes and variability in a transient simulation with a chemistry-climate model employing realistic forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2121–2145, 2005. Egorova,~T., Rozanov,~E., Zubov,~V., Manzini,~E., Schmutz,~W., and Peter,~T.: Chemistry-climate model SOCOL: a validation of the present-day climatology, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1557–1576, 2005. Eyring,~V., Butchart,~N., Waugh,~D W., et~al.: Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past, J Geophys. Res., 111, D22308, doi:10.1029/2006JD007327, 2006. Eyring,~V., Waugh,~D W., Bodeker,~G E., et~al.: Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century, J Geophys. Res., 112, D16303, doi:10.1029/2006JD008332, 2007. Eyring,~V., Chipperfield,~M P., Giorgetta,~M A., Kinnison,~D E., Manzini,~E., Matthes,~K. Newman,~P A., Pawson,~S., Shepherd,~T G., and Waugh,~D W.: Overview of the New CCMVal Reference and Sensitivity Simulations in Support of Upcoming Ozone and Climate Assessments and the Planned SPARC CCMVal, SPARC Newsletter No 30, 20–26, 2008. Fomichev,~V I., Jonsson,~A I., de Grandpr'e,~J., et~al.: Response of the middle atmosphere to \chemCO_2 doubling: Results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, J Climate, 20, 1121–1144, 2007. Garcia,~R R., Marsh,~D., Kinnison,~D., Boville,~B., and Sassi,~F.: Simulations of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950–2003, J Geophys. Res., 112, D09301, doi:10.1029/2006JD007485, 2007. Gillett,~N P. and Thompson,~D W J.: Simulation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change, Science, 302, 273–275, 2003. Gleckler,~P J., Taylor,~K E., and Doutriaux,~C.: Performance metrics for climate models, J Geophys. Res., 113, D06104, doi:10.1029/2007JD008972, 2008. Hassler,~B., Bodeker,~G E., and Dameris,~M.: Technical Note: A~new global database of trace gases and aerosols from multiple sources of high vertical resolution measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 5403–5421, 2008. Hassler, B., Bodeker, G. E., Cionni, I., and Dameris, M.: A vertically resolved, monthly mean, ozone database from 1979 to 2100 for constraining global climate model simulations, Int. J. Remote Sensing, 30(15), 4009–4018, doi:10.1080/01431160902821874, 2009. Hu,~Y. and Tung,~K K.: Interannual and decadal variations of planetary wave activity, stratospheric cooling, and Northern Hemisphere annular mode, J Climate, 15, 1659–1673, 2002. Hu,~Y., Tung,~K K., and Liu,~J.: A~closer comparison of early and late-winter atmospheric trends in the Northern Hemisphere, J Climate, 18, 3204–3216, 2005. Jourdain,~L., Bekki,~S., Lott,~F., and Lefèvre,~F.: The coupled chemistry-climate model LMDz-REPROBUS: Description and evaluation of a~transient simulation of the period 1980–1999, Ann. Geophys., 26, 1391–1413, 2008. Karpetchko,~A. and Nikulin,~G.: Influence of early winter upward wave activity flux on midwinter circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere, J Climate, 17, 4443–4452, 2004. Marshall,~G J., Orr,~A., van Lipzig,~N P M., and King,~J C.: The impact of a~changing Southern Hemisphere annular mode on Antarctic Peninsula summer temperatures, J Climate, 19, 5388–5404, 2006. Miller,~R L., Schmidt,~G A., and Shindell,~D T.: Forced annular variations in the 20th century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report models, J Geophys. Res., 111, D18101, doi:10.1029/2005JD006323, 2006. Pawson,~S., Stolarski,~R S., Douglass,~A R., Newman,~P A., Nielsen,~J E., Frith,~S M., and Gupta,~M L.: Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model simulations of stratospheric ozone-temperature coupling between 1950 and 2005, J Geophys. Res, 113, D12103, doi:10.1029/2007JD009511, 2008. Pitari,~G., Mancini,~E., Rizi,~V., and Shindell,~D.: Feedback of future climate and sulfur emission changes an stratospheric aerosols and ozone, J Atmos. Sci., 59, 414–440, 2002. Perlwitz,~J., Pawson,~S., Fogt,~R L., Nielsen,~J E., and Neff,~W D.: Impact of stratospheric ozone hole recovery on Antarctic climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08714, doi:10.1029/2008GL033317, 2008. Randel,~W J. and Wu,~F.: Cooling of the Arctic and Antarctic polar stratospheres due to ozone depletion, J Climate, 12, 1467–1479, 1999. Randel,~W J. and Wu,~F.: A~stratospheric ozone profile data set for 1979–2005: Variability, trends, and comparisons with column ozone data, J Geophys. Res., 112, D06313, doi:10.1029/2006JD007339, 2007. Reichler,~T. and Kim,~J.: How well do coupled models simulate today's climate?, B Am. Meteorol. Soc., 89, 303–311, 2008. Schraner,~M., Rozanov,~E., Schnadt Poberaj,~C., Kenzelmann,~P., Fischer,~A M., Zubov,~V., Luo,~B P., Hoyle,~C R., Egorova,~T., Fueglistaler,~S., Brönnimann,~S., Schmutz,~W., and Peter,~T.: Technical Note: Chemistry-climate model SOCOL: version 2.0 with improved transport and chemistry/microphysics schemes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 5957–5974, 2008. Shibata,~K. and Deushi,~M.: Partitioning between resolved wave forcing and unresolved gravity wave forcing to the quasi-biennial oscillation as revealed with a~coupled chemistry-climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12820, doi:10.1029/2005GL022885, 2005. Son,~S.-W., Polvani,~L M., Waugh,~D W., Akiyoshi,~H., Garcia,~R., Kinnison,~D., Pawson,~S., Rozanov,~E., Shepherd,~T G., and Shibata,~K.: The impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet, Science, 320, 1486–1489, 2008. Steil,~B., Brühl,~C., Manzini,~E., Crutzen,~P J., Lelieveld,~J., Rasch,~P J., Roeckner,~E., and Krüger,~K.: A~new interactive chemistry climate model, 1: Present day climatology and interannual variability of the middle atmosphere using the model and 9 years of HALOE/UARS data, J Geophys. Res., 108, 4290, doi:10.1029/2002JD002971, 2003. Stolarski,~R S. and Frith,~S M.: Search for evidence of trend slow-down in the long-term TOMS/SBUV total ozone data record: the importance of instrument drift uncertainty, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4057–4065, 2006. Thompson,~D W J. and Solomon,~S.: Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change, Science, 296, 895–899, 2002. Tian,~W. and Chipperfield,~M P.: A~new coupled chemistry-climate model for the stratosphere: The importance of coupling for future \chemO_3-climate predictions, Q J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 281–304, 2005. Waugh,~D W. and Eyring,~V.: Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 5699–5713, 2008. World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP): Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, World Meteorological Organization, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Report No 50, Geneva, Switzerland, 2007. Zhou,~S T., Gelman,~M E., Miller,~A J., and McCormack,~J P.: An inter-hemisphere comparison of the persistent stratospheric polar vortex, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1123–1126, 2000.