ACPD Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ACPD 1680-7375 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acpd-9-15339-2009 A modelling system for the exhaust emissions of marine traffic and its application in the Baltic Sea area Jalkanen J.-P. 1 Brink A. 2 Kalli J. 3 Pettersson H. 1 Kukkonen J. 1 Stipa T. 1 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Air Quality, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland Åbo Akademi, Process Chemistry Center (CMC), Tuomiokirkontori 3, 20500 Turku, Finland University of Turku, Centre for Maritime Studies, P.O. Box 181, 28101 Pori, Finland 17 07 2009 9 4 15339 15373 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/15339/2009/acpd-9-15339-2009.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/15339/2009/acpd-9-15339-2009.pdf

A method is presented for the evaluation of the exhaust emissions of marine traffic, based on the messages provided by the Automatic Identification System (AIS), which enable the identification and location determination of ships. The use of the AIS data enables the positioning of ship emissions with a high spatial resolution, which is limited only by the inaccuracies of the Global Positioning System (typically a few metres) that is used in vessel navigation. The emissions are computed based on the relationship of the instantaneous speed to the design speed, and these computations also take into account the detailed technical information of the ships' engines. The modelling of emissions is also based on a few basic equations of ship design, including the modelling of the propelling power of each vessel in terms of its speed. We have also investigated the effect of waves on the consumption of fuel, and on the emissions to the atmosphere. The predictions of fuel consumption were compared with the actual values obtained from the shipowners. For a RoPax vessel, the predicted and reported values of fuel consumption agreed within an accuracy of 6%. According to the data analysis and model computations, the emissions of NO<sub>x</sub>, SO<sub>x</sub> and CO<sub>2</sub> originating from ships in the Baltic Sea in 2007 were in total 400 kt, 138 kt and 19 Mt, respectively. A breakdown of emissions by flag state, ship's type and year of construction is also presented. The modelling system can be used as a decision support tool in the case of issues concerning, e.g., health effects caused by shipping emissions, the construction of emission-based fairway dues systems or emissions trading. The computation of emissions can also be automated, which will save resources in constructing emission inventories. Both the methodologies and the emission computation program can be applied in any sea region in the world, provided that the AIS data from that specific region are available.

 References Bewersdorff, I., Aulinger, A., Matthias, V., and Quante, M.: in Air Pollution Modelling and Its Application XIX – NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C, ISBN 978-1-4020-8452-2, Springer Netherlands, 296, 2008. Capaldo, K., Corbett, J. J., Kasibhatla, P., Fischbeck, P., and Pandis, S. N.: Effects of ship emissions on sulphur cycling and radiative climate forcing over the ocean, Nature, 400, 743–746, 1999. Corbett, J. J., Fishbeck, P. S., and Pandis, S. N.: Global nitrogen and sulphur inventories for oceangoing ships, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 3457–3470, 1999. Corbett, J. J. and Köhler, H. W. Updated emissions from ocean shipping, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D20), 4650, doi:10.1029/2003JD003751, 2003. Corbett, J. J., Winebrake, J. J., Green, E. H., Kasibhatla, P., Eyring, V., and Lauer, A.: Mortality from Ship Emissions: A Global Assessment, Env. Sci. Tech., 41, 8512–8518, 2007. Dalsøren, S. B., Endresen, Ø., Isaksen, I. S. A., Gravir, G., and Sørg&aring;rd, E.: Environmental impacts of the expected increase in sea transportation, with a particular focus on oil and gas scenarios for Norway and northwest Russia, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D02310, doi:10.1029/2005JD006927, 2007. Davies, M. E., Plant, G., Cosslett, C., Harrop, O., amd Petts, J. W.: Study on the economic, legal, environmental and practical implications of a European Union system to reduce ship emissions of SO2 and NOx. Final report. BMT Murray Fenton Edon Liddiard Vince Limited, No. 3623, p 56, 2000. Davis, D. D., Grodzinsky, G., Kasibhatla, P., Crawford, J., Chen, G., Liu, S., Bandy, A., Thornton, D., Guan, H., and Sandholm, S.: Impact of Ship Emissions on Marine Boundary Layer NO<sub>x</sub> and SO<sub>2</sub> Distributions over the Pacific Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 235–238, 2001. De Meyer P., Maes F. and Volckaert A.: Emissions from international shipping in the Belgian part of the North Sea and the Belgian seaports, Atmos. Environ., 42, 196–206, 2008 DeMers, D. and Walters, G.: BAE Systems: Guide to Exhaust emission control options. International Council of Combustion Engines (CIMAC) report, 2000. Dentener, F., Kinne, S., Bond, T., Boucher, O., Cofala, J., Generoso, S., Ginoux, P., Gong, S., Hoelzemann, J. J., Ito, A., Marelli, L., Penner, J. E., Putaud, J.-P., Textor, C., Schulz, M., van der Werf, G. R., and Wilson, J.: Emissions of primary aerosol and precursor gases in the years 2000 and 1750 prescribed data-sets for AeroCom, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4321–4344, 2006. Dong, C., Huan, K.-L., Chen, C.-W., Lee, C.-W., Lin, H.-Y., and Chen, C.-F.: Estimation of Air Pollutants Emission from Shipping in the Kaohsiung Harbor Area, Aerosol Air Qual. Res., 2, 30–40, 2002. European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme monitoring and evaluation of long range transport of air pollution (EMEP), expert emissions, http://webdab1.umweltbundesamt.at/cgi-bin/wedb2_controller.pl?State=scaled&countries=%3ASHIPS&years=2006&sectors=1008&pollutants=SOx&datatype=national_html&horizontal=area&vertical=year&info=on Endresen, Ø., Sørg&aring;rd, E., Sundet, J. K., Dalsøren, S. B., Isaksen, I. S. A., Berglen, T. F., and Gravir, G.: Emission from international sea transportation and environmental impact, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D17), 4560, doi:10.1029/2002JD002898, 2003. Endresen, Ø., Bakke, J., Sørg&aring;rd, E., Berglen, T. F., and Holmvang, P.: Improved modelling of ship SO2 emissions – a fuel-based approach. Atmos. Environ., 39, 3621–3628, 2005. Endresen, Ø., Sørg&aring;rd, E., Lee Behrens, H., Brett, P. O., and Isaksen, I. S. A.: A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12301, doi:10.1029/2006JD007630, 2007. ENTEC UK Limited, Quantification of emissions from ships associated with ship movements between ports in the European Community, Final report to the European Commission, London UK, 2002. Finnish National Board of Customs, "Foreign trade transports, 2007", available in Finnish from http://www.tulli.fi/fi/05_Ulkomaankauppatilastot/11_Arkisto/03_Tilastokatsaukset/2008/2008_M17.pdf, 2008. Georgakaki, A., Coffey, R. A., Lock, G., and Sorenson, S. C.: Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS): Maritime air pollutant emission modelling, Atmos. Env., 38, 2357–2365, 2005. Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Shipping and Implementation Guidance for the Marine Fuel Sulphur Directive, Delft CE, Germanischer Lloyd, MARINTEK, Det Norske Veritas, Delft, The Netherlands, 2006. International Maritime Organization, Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS) agreement, regulation 19, Chapter V, 1974 (2002 Amendments), 2002. International Maritime Organization, The International Convention for the Prevention of Marine Pollution from Ships, 1973 as modified by the Protocol of 1978 relating thereto (MARPOL 73/78), Annex VI: Prevention of Air Pollution from Ships, (2008 Amendments), 2008. Isaksson, J., Persson, T. A., and Lindgren, E. S.: Identification and assessment of ship emissions and their effects in the harbour of Göteborg, Sweden, Atmos. Env., 35, 3659–3666, 2001. ITTC Recommended Procedures: ITTC Performance prediction method, 7.5-02-03-01.4, 1–31, 1999. Kahma, K. K.: in On Prediction of the Fetch-limited Wave Spectrum in a Steady Wind. Finnish Marine Research series, Finnish Institute of Marine Research, 253, 52–78, 1986. Kesgin, U. and Vardar, N.: A study on exhaust gas emissions from ships in Turkish Straits, Atmos. Environ., 35, 1863–1870, 2001. Komen, G. J., Cavaleri, L., Donelan, M., Hasselmann, K., Hasselmann, S., and Janssen, P. A. E. M.: Dynamics and modelling of ocean waves, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 1994. Lauer, A., Eyring, V., Hendricks, J., Jöckel, P., and Lohmann, U.: Global model simulations of the impact of ocean-going ships on aerosols, clouds, and the radiation budget, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5061–5079, 2007. Lloyd's Register – Fairplay Ltd, Lombard House, 3 Princess Way, Redhill, Surrey RH1 1UP, United Kingdom, 2009. Lövblad, G. and Fridell, E.: Experiences from use of some techniques to reduce emissions from ships. Swedish Maritime Administration, Göteborg Sweden, 2006. Marine Exhaust Emissions Quantification Study – Mediterranean Sea;Lloyd's Register: London, UK, 99/EE/7044, 1999. Mäkelä, K.: Calculation system for the Finnish waterway traffic emissions MEERI, http://lipasto.vtt.fi/meeri/index.htm, 2007. Richter, A., Eyring, V., Burrows, J. P., Bovensmann, H., Lauer, A., Sierk, B., and Crutzen, P. J.: Satellite measurements of NO2 from international shipping emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L23110, doi:10.1029/2004GL020822, 2004. Service Contract on Ship Emissions: Assignment, Abatement and Market-based Instruments, Task 2, European Commission Directorate General Environment Report: Brussels, Belgium; ENTEC UK Limited: London, 2005. The Port of Los Angeles Inventory of Air Emissions for Calendar Year 2007, Starcrest Consulting Group, Poulsbo WA, USA; ADP#050520-525, 2008. Townsin, R. L., Kwon, Y. J., Baree, M. S., and Kim, D. Y.: Estimating the influence of weather on ship performance, RINA Transactions, 135, 191–210, 1993. Tuomi, L.: The accuracy of FIMR wave forecasts in 2002–2005 – Meri: Report Series of the Finnish Institute of Marine Research, 63, 7–16, 2008. Wahlström, J., Karvosenoja, N., and Porvari, P.: Ship Emissions and Technical Emission Reduction Potential in the Northern Baltic Sea, Reports of Finnish Environment Institute, 71 pp., 8/2006. Wang, C., Corbett, J. J., and Firestone, J.: Modeling Energy Use and Emissions from North American Shipping: Application of the Ship Traffic, Energy, and Environment Model, Environ. Sci. Tech., 41, 3226–3232, 2007. Wang, C., Corbett, J. J., and Firestone, J.: Improving Spatial Representation of Global Ship Emissions Inventories, Environ. Sci. Technol., 42, 193–199, 2008. Vestreng, V., Adams, M., and Goodwin, J.: Inventory Review 2004, Emission Data reported to CLRTAP and under the NEC Directive. EMEP/EEA Joint Review Report, EMEP/MSC-W Note, ISSN 0804-2446, 1/2004. Yang, D.-Q., Kwan, S. H., Lu, T., Fu, Q.-Y., Cheng, J.-M., Streets, D. G., Wu, Y.-M., and Li, J.-J.: An Emission Inventory of Marine Vessels in Shanghai in 2003, Environ. Sci. Technol., 41, 5183–5190, 2007.