Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 9 4 2009 10.5194/acpd-9-15339-2009 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/15339/2009/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/15339/2009/acpd-9-15339-2009.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/15339/2009/acpd-9-15339-2009.pdf 15339 15373 2009-07-17 A modelling system for the exhaust emissions of marine traffic and its application in the Baltic Sea area J.-P. Jalkanen jukka-pekka.jalkanen@fmi.fi A. Brink J. Kalli H. Pettersson J. Kukkonen T. Stipa Finnish Meteorological Institute, Air Quality, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland Åbo Akademi, Process Chemistry Center (CMC), Tuomiokirkontori 3, 20500 Turku, Finland University of Turku, Centre for Maritime Studies, P.O. Box 181, 28101 Pori, Finland A method is presented for the evaluation of the exhaust emissions of marine traffic, based on the messages provided by the Automatic Identification System (AIS), which enable the identification and location determination of ships. The use of the AIS data enables the positioning of ship emissions with a high spatial resolution, which is limited only by the inaccuracies of the Global Positioning System (typically a few metres) that is used in vessel navigation. The emissions are computed based on the relationship of the instantaneous speed to the design speed, and these computations also take into account the detailed technical information of the ships' engines. The modelling of emissions is also based on a few basic equations of ship design, including the modelling of the propelling power of each vessel in terms of its speed. We have also investigated the effect of waves on the consumption of fuel, and on the emissions to the atmosphere. The predictions of fuel consumption were compared with the actual values obtained from the shipowners. For a RoPax vessel, the predicted and reported values of fuel consumption agreed within an accuracy of 6%. According to the data analysis and model computations, the emissions of NO_x, SO_x and CO₂ originating from ships in the Baltic Sea in 2007 were in total 400 kt, 138 kt and 19 Mt, respectively. A breakdown of emissions by flag state, ship's type and year of construction is also presented. The modelling system can be used as a decision support tool in the case of issues concerning, e.g., health effects caused by shipping emissions, the construction of emission-based fairway dues systems or emissions trading. The computation of emissions can also be automated, which will save resources in constructing emission inventories. 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