Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 9 1 2009 10.5194/acpd-9-1157-2009 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/1157/2009/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/1157/2009/acpd-9-1157-2009.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/1157/2009/acpd-9-1157-2009.pdf 1157 1209 2009-01-14 Evolution of stratospheric ozone and water vapour time series studied with satellite measurements A. Jones ashley@rss.chalmers.se J. Urban D. P. Murtagh P. Eriksson S. Brohede C. Haley D. Degenstein A. Bourassa C. von Savigny T. Sonkaew A. Rozanov H. Bovensmann J. Burrows Department of Radio and Space Science, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, York University, Toronto, Canada University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany The long term evolution of stratospheric ozone and water vapour has been investigated by extending satellite time series to April 2008. For ozone, we examine monthly average ozone values from various satellite data sets for nine latitude and altitude bins covering 60° S to 60° N and 20–45 km and covering the time period 1979–2008. Data are from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE I+II), the HALogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Solar BackscatterUltraViolet-2 (SBUV/2) instrument, the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR), the Optical Spectrograph InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS), and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartograpY (SCIAMACHY). Monthly ozone anomalies are calculated by utilising a linear regression model, which also models the solar, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and seasonal cycle contributions. Individual instrument ozone anomalies are combined producing a weighted all instrument average. Assuming a turning point of 1997 and that the all instrument average is represented by good instrumental long term stability, the largest statistically significant ozone declines from 1979–1997 are seen at the mid-latitudes between 35 and 45 km, namely −7.7%/decade in the Northern Hemisphere and −7.8%/decade in the Southern Hemisphere. For the period 1997 to 2008 we find that the southern mid-latitudes between 35 and 45 km show the largest ozone recovery (+3.4%/decade) compared to other global regions, although the estimated trend model error is of a similar magnitude (+2.1%/decade, at the 95% confidence level). An all instrument average is also constructed from water vapour anomalies during 1984–2008, using the SAGE II, HALOE, SMR, and the Microwave Limb Sounder (aura/MLS) measurements. We report that the decrease in water vapour values after 2001 slows down around 2004 in the lower tropical stratosphere (20–25 km), and has even shown signs of increasing values in upper stratospheric mid-latitudes. We show that a similar correlation is also seen with the temperature measured at 100 hPa during this same period. Baldwin,~M P., Gray,~L J., Dunkerton,~T J., Hamilton,~K., Haynes,~P H., Randel,~W J., Holton,~J R., Alexander,~M J., Hirota,~I., Horinouchi,~T., Jones,~D B A., Kinnersley,~J S., Marquardt,~C., Sato,~K., and Takahashi, M.: The quasi-biennial oscillation, Rev. Geophys., 39, 179–229, 2001. Bhartia,~P K.: Total ozone from backscattered ultraviolet measurements, in Observing Systems for Atmospheric Composition, Springer Science, New York, 48–63, 2007. Bhartia,~P K., McPeters,~R D., Mateer,~C L., Flynn,~L E., Wellemeyer, C.: Algorithm for the estimation of vertical ozone profiles from the backscatterd ultraviolet technique, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 18 793–18 806, 1996. Bhartia,~P K., Wellemeyer,~C., Taylor,~S L., Nath,~N., and Gopalan,~A.: Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) Version 8 profile algorithm, In proceedings of the XX Quadrennial Ozone Symposium, edited by: Z. Zerefos, Univ. of Athens, 295–296, Greece, 2004. Borchi, F. and Pommereau, J.-P.: Evaluation of ozonesondes, HALOE, SAGE II and III, Odin- OSIRIS and -SMR, and ENVISAT-GOMOS, -SCIAMACHY and -MIPAS ozone profiles in the tropics from SAOZ long duration balloon measurements in 2003 and 2004, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 2671–2690, 2007. Bovensmann,~H., Burrows,~J P., Buchwitz,~M., Frerick,~J., No\"el,~S., Rozanov,~V V., Chance,~K V., and Goede,~A H P.: SCIAMACHY – mission objectives and measurement modes, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 127–150, 1999. Brasseur, G. and Solomon, S.: Aeronomy of the middle atmospere, D. Reidel publishing company, New York, 2nd edn., 1–472, 1997. Brinksma, E. J., Bracher, A., Lolkema, D. E., Segers, A. J., Boyd, I. S., Bramstedt, K., Claude, H., Godin-Beekmann, S., Hansen, G., Kopp, G., Leblanc, T., McDermid, I. S., Meijer, Y. J., Nakane, H., Parrish, A., von Savigny, C., Stebel, K., Swart, D. P. J., Taha, G., and Piters, A. J. M.: Geophysical validation of SCIAMACHY Limb Ozone Profiles, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 197–209, 2006. Brohede,~S., Jones,~A., and Jegou~F.: Internal consistency in the Odin stratospheric ozone products, Can. J. Phys., 85, 1275–1285, 2007. Chiou,~E.-W., Thomason,~L W., Burton,~S P., and Michelsen,~H A.: Assessment of the SAGE~II version 6.2 water vapor data set through intercomparison with ATMOS/ATLAS-3 measurements, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L14101, doi:10.1029/2004GL020071, 2004. Cunnold,~D M., Chu,~W P., Barnes,~R A., McCormick,~M P., and Veiga,~R. E.: Validation of SAGE~II ozone measurements. J. Geophys. Res., 94, 8447–8460, 1989. Cunnold,~D M., Yang,~E S., Newchurch~M J., Reinsel~G C., Zawodny~J M., and Russell III,~J M. : Comment on \qutEnhanced upper stratospheric ozone: Sign of recovery or solar cycle effect?, edited by: Steinbrecht et al., J. Geophys. Res., 109, D14305, doi:10.1029/2004JD004826, 2004. Frisk,~U., Hagstrom,~M., Ala-Laurinaho,~J., Andersson,~S., Berges,~J C., Chabaud,~J P., Dahlgren,~M., Emrich,~A., Floren,~H G., Florin,~G., Fredrixon,~M., Gaier,~T., Haas,~R., Hirvonen,~T., Hjalmarsson,~A., Jakobsson,~B., Jukkala,~P., Kildal,~P S., Kollberg,~E., Lassing,~J., Lecacheux,~A., Lehikoinen,~P., Lehto,~A., Mallat,~J., Marty,~C., Michet,~D., Narbonne,~J., Nexon,~M., Olberg,~M., Olofsson,~A O H., Olofsson,~G., Origne,~A., Petersson,~M., Piironen,~P., Pons,~R., Pouliquen,~D., Ristorcelli,~I., Rosolen,~C., Rouaix,~G., Raisanen,~A V., Serra,~G., Sjoberg,~F., Stenmark,~L., Torchinsky,~S., Tuovinen,~J., Ullberg,~C., Vinterhav,~E., Wadefalk,~N., Zirath,~H., Zimmermann,~P., and Zimmermann,~R.: The Odin Satellite:~I. Radiometer Design and Test, Astron. Astrophys., 402, 27–34, 2003. Haley,~C S., Brohede,~S M., Sioris,~C E., Griffioen,~E., Murtagh,~D P., McDade,~I C., Eriksson,~P., Llewellyn,~~E J., Bazureau,~A., and Goutail, F.: Retrieval of stratospheric \chemO_3 and \chemNO_2 profiles from Odin Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (OSIRIS) limb-scattered sunlight measurements,~J. Geophys. Res., 109, D16303, doi:10.1029/2004JD004588, 2004. Harries,~J E., Russell III,~J M., Tuck,~A F., Gordley,~L L., Purcell, P., Stone,~K., Bevilacqua,~R., Gunson,~M R., Nedoluha,~G., and Traub~W A.: Validation of Measurements of Water Vapor from the Halogen Occultation Experiment, HALOE, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 10 205–10 216, 1996. Jones,~A., Murtagh,~D., Urban,~J., Eriksson,~P., and Rosevall~J.: Intercomparison of Odin/SMR ozone measurements with MIPAS and balloon sonde data, Can. J. Phys., 85, 1111–1123, 2007. Jucks,~K W., Johnson,~D G., Chance,~K V., Traub,~W A., Salawitch,~R J., and Stachnik,~R A.: Ozone production and loss rate measurements in the middle stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 28 785–28 792, 1996. Lambert,~A., Read,~W G., Livesey,~N J., Santee,~M L., Manney,~G L., Froidevaux,~L., Wu,~D L., Schwartz,~M J., Pumphrey,~H C., Jimenez,~C., Nedoluha,~G E., Cofield,~R E., Cuddy,~D T., Daffer,~W H., Drouin,~B J., Fuller,~R A., Jarnot,~R F., Knosp,~B W., Pickett,~H M., Perun,~V S., Snyder,~W V., Stek,~P C., Thurstans,~R P., Wagner,~P A., Waters,~J W., Jucks,~K W., Toon,~G C., Stachnik,~R A., Bernath,~P F., Boone,~C D., Walker,~K A., Urban,~J., Murtagh,~D., Elkins,~J W., and Atlas,~E.: Validation of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder stratospheric water vapour and nitrous oxide measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S36, doi:10.1029/2007JD008724, 2007. Llewellyn,~E J., Lloyd,~N D., Degenstein,~D A., Gattinger,~R L., Petelina,~S. V,. Bourassa,~A E., Wiensz,~J T., Ivanov,~E V., McDade,~I. C., Solheim,~B H., McConnell,~J C., Haley,~C S., von Savigny,~C., Sioris, C E., McLinden,~C A., Griffioen,~E., Kaminski,~J., Evans,~W F J., Puckrin,~E., Strong,~K., Wehrle,~V., Hum,~R H., Kendall,~D J W., Matsushita,~J., Murtagh,~D P., Brohede,~S., Stegman,~J., Witt,~G., Barnes, G., Payne,~W F., Piché,~L., Smith,~K., Warshaw,~G., Deslauniers,~D.-L., Marchand,~P., Richardson,~E H., King,~R A., Wevers,~I., McCreath,~W., Kyrölä,~E., Oikarinen,~L., Leppelmeier,~G W., Auvinen,~H., Mégie,~G., Hauchecorne,~A., Lefèvre,~F., de La No\"e,~J., Ricaud, P., Frisk,~U., Sjoberg,~F., von Schéele,~F., and Nordh,~L.: The OSIRIS instrument on the Odin spacecraft, Can J. Phys./Rev. Can. Phys., 82, 411–422, 2004. Murtagh,~D., Frisk,~U., Merino,~F., Ridal,~M., Jonsson,~A., Stegman,~J., Witt,~G., Eriksson,~P., Jimenez,~C.,~ Mégie,~G., de La No\"e,~J., Ricaud,~P., Baron,~P., Pardo,~J.-R., Hauchecorne,~A., Llewellyn,~E J., Degenstein,~D A., Gattinger,~R L., Lloyd,~N D., Evans,~W F J., McDade, I C., Haley,~C., Sioris,~C., Savigny,~C. von, Solheim,~B H., McConnell,~J. C., Strong,~K., Richardson,~E H., Leppelmeier,~G W., Kyrölä,~E., Auvinen,~H., and Oikarinen~L.: An overview of the Odin atmospheric mission, Can. J. Phys., 80, 309–319, 2002. Nazaryan,~H., McCormick,~M P., and Russell III,~J M.: Comparative analysis of SBUV/2 and HALOE ozone profiles and trends, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10304, doi:10.1029/2006JD007367, 2007. Nazaryan,~H., McCormick,~M P., and Russell III,~J M.: New studies of SAGE~II and HALOE ozone profile and long-term change comparisons, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D09305, doi:10.1029/2004JD005425, 2005. Nedoluha,~G E., Bevilacqua,~R M., Gomez,~R M., Hicks,~B C., Russell III, J M., and Connor,~B J.: An evaluation of trends in middle atmospheric water vapor as measured by HALOE, WVMS, and POAM, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D13), 4391, doi:10.1029/2002JD003332, 2003. Nedoluha,~G E., Bevilacqua,~R M., Hoppel,~K W., Lumpe,~J D., and Smit, H.: Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement III measurements of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4103, doi:10.1029/2001JD000793, 2002. Newchurch,~M J., Yang,~E S., Cunnold,~D M., Reinsel,~G C., Zawodny,~J. M., and Russel III,~J M.: Evidence for slowdown in stratospheric ozone loss: First stage of ozone recovery, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D16), 4507, doi:10.1029/2003JD003471, 2003. Newman, P. A., Daniel, J. S., Waugh, D. W., and Nash, E. R.: A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 4537–4552, 2007. Newman,~P A., Nash,~E R., Kawa,~S R., Montzka,~S A., and Schauffler,~S M.: When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover? Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12814, doi:10.1029/2005GL025232, 2006. Ramaswamy,~V., Chanin,~M.-L., Angell,~J., Barnett,~J., Gaffen,~D., Gelman, M., Keckhut,~P., Koshelkov,~Y., Labitzke,~K., Lin,~J.-J R., O'Neill,~A., Nash,~J., Randel,~W., Rood,~R., Shine,~K., Shiotani,~M., and Swinbank,~R.: Stratospheric temperature trends: observations and model simulations, Rev. Geophys., 39, 71–122, 2001. Randel,~W J., Wu,~F., Oltmans,~S J., Rosenlof,~K., and Nedoluha,~G E.: Interannual changes of stratospheric water vapor and correlations with tropical tropopause temperatures, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2133–2148, 2004. Randel,~W J.,~ Wu, F, Voemel,~H., Nedoluha,~G E., and Forster,~P.: Decreases in stratospheric water vapor after 2001: links to changes in the tropical tropopause and the Brewer-Dobson circulation, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12312, doi:10.1029/2005JD006744, 2006. Reinsel, G. C., Weatherhead, E. C., Tiao, G. C., Miller, A. J., Nagatani, R. M., Wuebbless, D. J., and Flynn, L. E.: On detection of turn around and recovery in trend for ozone, J. Geophys. 5 Res., 107(D10), 4078, doi:10.1029/2001JD000500, 2002a. Reinsel, G. C.: Trend analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone data for evidence of turnaround, Geophys. Res. Let., 29(N10), 1451, 10.1029/2002GL014716, 2002b. Rosenlof,~K H., and Reid,~G C.: Trends in the temperature and water vapor content of the tropical lower stratosphere: Sea surface connection, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06107, doi:10.1029/2007JD009109, 2008. Russell III,~J M., Gordley,~L L., Park,~J H., Drayson,~S R., Hesketh, D H., Cicerone,~R J., Tuck,~A F., Frederick,~J E., Harries,~J E., and Crutzen~P.: The Halogen Occultation Experiment, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 10 777–10 797, 1993. Shindell,~D T.: Climate and ozone response to increased Stratospheric water vapor, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1551–1554, doi:10.1029/1999GL011197, 2001. SPARC: Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapour, chap. Conclusions, World Climate Research Programme, WCRP-113, WMO/TD-No.1043, 261–264, 2000. Steinbrecht,~W., Claude,~H., Schönenborn,~F., McDermid,~I S., Leblanc, T., Godin,~S., Song,~T., Swart,~D P J.,~ Meijer,~Y J., Bodeker,~G E., Connor,~B J., Kämpfer,~N., Hocke,~K., Calisesi,~Y., Schneider,~N., de la Noe,~J., Parrish,~A D., Boyd,~I S., Bruhl,~C., Steil,~B., Giorgetta,~M. A., Manzini,~E., Thomason,~L W., Zawodny,~J M., McCormick,~M P., Russell III,~J M., Bhartia,~P K., Stolarski,~R S., and Hollandsworth-Frith,~S M.: Long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone at selected stations of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), J. Geophys. Res., 111, D10308, doi:10.1029/2005JD006454, 2006. Steinbrecht~W., Claude,~H., and Winkler~P.: Enhanced stratospheric ozone: Sign of recovery or solar cycle?, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D2308, doi:10.1029/2004JD004284, 2003. Taha,~G., Thomason,~L W., and Burton,~S P.: Comparison of Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II version 6.2 water vapor with balloon-borne and space-based instruments, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D18313, doi:10.1029/2004JD004859, 2004. Terao,~Y., and Logan~J A.: Consistency of time series and trends of stratospheric ozone as seen by ozonesondes, SAGE~II, HALOE, and SBUV(/2), J. Geophys. Res., 112, D06310, doi:10.1029/2006JD007667, 2007. Thomason,~L W., Burton,~S P., Iyer,~N., Zawodny,~J M., and Anderson,~J.: A~revised water vapor product for the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II version 6.2 data set, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D06312, doi:10.1029/2003JD004465, 2004. Urban,~J., Lautié,~N., Le Flochmo\"en,~E., Jiménez,~C., Eriksson, P., de La No\"e,~J., Dupuy,~E., Ekström,~M., El Amraoui,~L., Frisk, U., Murtagh,~D., Olberg,~M., and Ricaud,~P.: Odin/SMR limb observations of stratospheric trace gases: Level 2 processing of ClO, \chemN_2O, \chemHNO_3, and \chemO_3, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D14307, 10.1029/2004JD005741, 29, 2005. Urban,~J., Lautié,~N., Murtagh,~D P., Eriksson,~P., Kasai,~Y., Lossow, S., Dupuy,~E., de La No\"e,~J., Frisk,~U., Olberg,~M., Flochmo\"en,~E. Le., and Ricaud~P.: Global observations of middle atmospheric water vapour by the Odin satellite: An overview, Planet. Space Sci., 55, 1093–1102, 2007. von Savigny,~C., Rozanov,~A., Bovensmann,~H., Eichmann,~K U., Nol,~S., Rozanov,~V., Sinnhuber,~B M., Weber,~M., Burrows,~J P., and Kaiser,~J W.: The Ozone Hole breakup in September 2002 as seen by SCIAMACHY on ENVISAT. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 721–734, 2005. Waters,~J W., Froidevaux, L., Harwood, R. S., et al.: The Earth Observing System Microwave Limb Sounder (EOS MLS) on the Aura satellite, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 55, 1075–1092, 2006. Waugh,~D W., Considine,~D B., and Fleming,~E L.: Is upper stratospheric chlorine decreasing as expected?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1187–1190, 2001. Weatherhead,~E C., Reinsel,~G C., Tiao,~G C., Meng, X-Li, Choi,~D., Cheang,~W K., Keller,~T., DeLuisi,~J., Weubbles,~D J., Kerr,~J B., Miller,~A J., Oltmans,~S J., and Frederick,~J E.: Factors affecting the detection of trends: Statistical considerations and applications to environmental data, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 17 149–17 116, 1998. World Meteorological Organisation (WMO): Scientfic Assessment of Ozone Depletion, Geneva, 2006. Yang~E.-S., Cunnold,~D M., Salawitch,~R J., McCormick,~M P., Russell III, J., Zawodny,~J M., Oltmans,~S., Newchurch,~M J.: Attribution of recovery in lower-stratospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D17309, doi:10.1029/2005JD006371, 2006. Zhou,~X.-L., Geller,~M A., and Zhang,~M.: Cooling trend of the tropical cold point tropopause temperatures and its implications, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 1511–1522, 2001.