Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net
1680-7367
1680-7375
8
3
2008
10.5194/acpd-8-9099-2008
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/9099/2008/
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/9099/2008/acpd-8-9099-2008.html
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/9099/2008/acpd-8-9099-2008.pdf
9099
9138
2008-05-20
Model analysis of the factors regulating the trends and variability of carbon monoxide between 1988 and 1997
B. N. Duncan
bryan.n.duncan@nasa.gov
J. A. Logan
Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center, University of Maryland at Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, USA
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 613.3, Greenbelt, MD, USA
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
We used a 3-D model of chemistry and transport to investigate trends and
variability in tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) for 1988–1997 caused by
changes in the overhead ozone column, fossil fuel emissions, biomass burning
emissions, methane, and transport. We found that the decreasing CO burden in
the northern extra-tropics (−0.85%/y) was more heavily influenced by the
decrease in European emissions during our study period than by the similar
increase in Asian emissions, as transport pathways from Europe favored
accumulation at higher latitudes in winter and spring. However, the opposite
trends in the CO burdens from these two source regions counterbalanced at
lower latitudes. Elsewhere, the factors influencing CO often compete,
diminishing their cumulative impact, and trends in model CO were small or
insignificant for our study period, except in the tropics in boreal fall
(1.1%/y), a result of emissions from major fires in Indonesia late in
1997. There was a decrease in the ozone column during the study period as a
result of the phase of the solar cycle and the eruption of Pinatubo in 1991.
This decrease contributed negatively to the trend in model CO by increasing
the hydroxyl radical (OH). The impact of this negative contribution was
diminished by a positive contribution of similar magnitude from increasing
methane. However, the trends in these two factors did not cancel for
tropospheric OH, which responded primarily to changes in the ozone column.
Allan, R. J. and D'Arrigo, R. D.: Persistent ENSO sequences: How unusual was the 1990–1995 El Niño?, Holocene, 9(1), 101–118, 1999.
Altshuller, P.: The production of carbon monoxide by the homogeneous NO<sub>x</sub>-induced photooxidation of volatile organic compounds in the troposphere, J. Atmos. Chem., 13, 155–182, 1991.
Bekki, S., Law, K. S., and Pyle, J.A.: Effect of ozone depletion on atmospheric methane and CO concentrations, Nature, 371, 595–597, 1994.
Bell, G. D., and Halpert, M. S.: Climate Assessment for 1997, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, S1–S50, 1998.
Bey, I., Jacob, D. J., Yantosca, R. M., et al.: Global modeling of tropospheric chemistry with assimilated meteorology: Model description and evaluation, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 23 073–23 095, 2001a.
Bey, I., Jacob, D. J., Logan, J. A., and Yantosca, R. M.: Asian chemical outflow to the Pacific: Origins, pathways and budgets, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 23 097–23 113, 2001b.
Bousquet, P., Hauglustaine, D. A., Peylin, P., Carouge, C., and Ciais, P.: Two decades of OH variability as inferred by an inversion of atmospheric transport and chemistry of methyl chloroform, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2635–2656, 2005.
Brunke, E.-G., Scheel, H. E., and Seiler, W.: Trends of tropospheric CO, N<sub>2</sub>O and methane as observed at Cape Point, South Africa, Atmos. Environ., 24A, 585–595, 1990.
Chameides, W. L., Liu, S. C., and Cicerone, R. J.: Possible variations in atmospheric methane, J. Geophys. Res., 82, 1795–1798, 1977.
Dlugokencky, E. J., Dutton, E. G., Novelli, P. C., Tans, P. P., Masarie, K. A., Lantz, K. O., and Madronich, S.: Changes in methane and CO growth rates after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo and their link with changes in tropical tropospheric UV flux, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 2761–2764, 1996.
Dlugokencky, E. J., Masarie, K. A., Lang, P. M., and Tans, P. P.: Continuing decline in the growth rate of atmospheric methane burden, Nature, 393, 447–450, 1998.
Duncan, B. N., Portman, D., Bey, I., and Spivakovsky, C. M.: Parameterization of OH for efficient computation in chemical tracer models, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 12 259–12 262, 2000.
Duncan, B. N., Martin, R. V., Staudt, A. C., Yevich, R. M., and Logan, J. A.: Interannual and Seasonal Variability of Biomass Burning Emissions Constrained by Satellite Observations, J. Geophys. Res., 108, D2, 4040, doi:10.1029/2002JD002378, 2003a.
Duncan, B. N., Bey, I., Chin, M., Mickley, L. J., Fairlie, T. D., Martin, R. V., and Matsueda, H.: Indonesian Wildfires of 1997: Impact on Tropospheric Chemistry, J. Geophys. Res., 108, D15, 4458, doi:10.1029/2002JD003195, 2003b.
Duncan, B. N. and Bey, I.: A Modeling Study of the Export Pathways of Pollution from Europe: Seasonal and Interannual Variations (1987–1997), J. Geophys. Res., 109, D08301, doi:10.1029/2003JD004079, 2004.
Duncan, B. N., Logan, J. A., Bey, I., Megretskaia, I. A., Yantosca, R. M., Novelli, P. C., Jones, N. B., and Rinsland, C. P.: Global budget of CO, 1988–1997: Source estimates and validation with a global model, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D22, D22301, doi:10.1029/2007JD008459, 2007.
Fuglestvedt, J. S., Jonson, J. E., and Isaksen, I. S. A.: Effects in reductions in stratospheric ozone on tropospheric chemistry through changes in photolysis rates, Tellus, 46B, 172–192, 1994.
Glantz, M. H.: Currents of Change, Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on Climate and Society, 84–100, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 2001.
Hurrell, J. W. and Folland, C. K.: A change in the summer atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, in Exchanges: Selected Research Papers, vol. 7, Clim. Variability and Predict., World Clim. Res. Progr., Southampton, UK, 2002.
Khalil, M. A. K. and Rasmussen, R. A.: Carbon monoxide in the Earth's atmosphere: Indications of a global increase, Nature, 332, 242–245, 1988.
Khalil, M. A. K. and Rasmussen, R. A.: Global decrease in atmospheric carbon monoxide concentration, Nature, 370, 639–641, 1994.
Lau, K.-M. and Yang, S.: Walker circulation, in Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, edited by J. Holton, J. P. Pyle, and J. Curry, 2505–2509, Academic, San Diego, Calif., 2002.
Liu, H., Jacob, D. J., Bey, I., Yantosca, R. M., and Duncan B. N.: Transport pathways for Asian pollution outflow over the Pacific: Interannual and seasonal variations, J. Geophys. Res., 108 D20, 8786, doi:10.1029/2002JD003102, 2003.
Lobert, J., Keen, W., Logan, J., and Yevich, R.: Global chlorine emissions from biomass burning: Reactive chlorine emissions inventory, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 8373–8389, 1999.
Mahieu, E., Zander, R., Delbouille, L., Demoulin, P., Roland, G., and Servais, C.: Observed trends in total vertical column abundances of atmospheric gases from IR solar spectra recorded at the Jungfraujoch, J. Atmos. Chem., 28, 227–243, 1997.
Manning, M. R., Lowe, D. C., Moss, R. C., Bodeker, G. E., and Allan, W.: Short-term variations in the oxidizing power of the atmosphere, Nature, 436, doi:10.1038/nature03900, 2005.
Mickley, L. J., Abbatt, J. P. D., Frederick, J. E., and Russell III, J. M.: Response of summertime odd nitrogen and ozone at 17 mbar to Mount Pinatubo aerosol over the southern midlatitudes: Observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 23 573–23 582, 1997.
Newell, R. E. and Evans, M. J.: Seasonal changes in pollutant transport to the North Pacific: the relative importance of Asian and European sources, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2509–2512, 2000.
Novelli, P. C., Steele, L. P., and Tans, P. P.: Mixing ratios of carbon monoxide in the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 12 855–12 861, 1992.
Novelli, P. C., Masarie, K. A., Tans, P. P., and Lang, P. M.: Recent changes in atmospheric carbon monoxide, Science, 263, 1587–1590, 1994.
Novelli, P. C., Masarie, K. A., and Lang, P. M.: Distributions and recent changes in carbon monoxide in the lower troposphere, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 19 015–19 033, 1998.
Novelli, P. C., Masarie, K. A., Lang, P. M., Hall, B. D., Myers, R. C., and Elkins, J. W.: Reanalysis of tropospheric CO trends: Effects of the 1997–1998 wildfires, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D15), 4464, doi:10.1029/2002JD003031, 2003.
Prinn, R., Huang, J., Weiss, R. F., et al.: Evidence for variability of atmospheric hydroxyl radicals over the past quarter century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L07809, doi:10.1029/2004GL022228, 2005.
Rinsland, C. P., Jones, N. B., Connor, B. J., et al.: Northern and southern hemisphere ground-based infrared spectroscopic measurements of tropospheric carbon monoxide and ethane, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D21), 28 197–28 218, doi:10.1029/98JD02515, 1998.
Rinsland, C. P., Goldman, A., Murcray, F. J., et al.: Infrared solar spectroscopic measurements of free tropospheric CO, C<sub>2</sub>H$_6$, and HCN above Mauna Loa, Hawaii: Seasonal variations and evidence for enhanced emissions from the Southeast Asian tropical fires of 1997–1998, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D15), 18 667–18 680, 10.1029/1999JD900366, 1999.
Rinsland, C. P., Mahieu, E., Zander, R., Demoulin, P., Forrer, J., and Buchmann, B.: Free tropospheric CO, C<sub>2</sub>H$_6$, and HCN above central Europe: Recent measurements from the Jungfraujoch station including the detection of elevated columns during 1998, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 24 235–24 249, 2000.
Schubert, S. D., Rood, R. B., and Pfaendtner, J.: An assimilated data set for earth science applications, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 2331–2342, 1993.
Spivakovsky, C. M., Logan, J. A., Montzka, S. A., Balkanski, Y. J., Foremen-Fowler, M., Jones, D. B. A., Horowitz, L. W., Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., Prather, M. J., Wofsy, S. C., and McElroy, M. B.: Three dimensional climatological distribution of tropospheric OH: update and evaluation, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 8931–8980, 2000.
Stohl, A., Eckhardt, S., Forster, C., James, P., and Spichtinger, N.: On the pathways and timescales of intercontinental air pollution transport, J. Geophys. Res., 107, doi:10.1029/2001JD001396, 2002.
Stolarski, R. S. and Frith, S. M.: Search for evidence of trend slow-down in the long-term TOMS/SBUV total ozone data record: the importance of instrument drift uncertainty, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6, 4057–4065, 2006.
Sze, N. D.: Anthropogenic CO emissions: implications fro the atmospheric CO-OH-methane cycle, Science, 195, 673–675, 1977.
Takacs, L. L., Molod, A., and Wang, T.: Documentation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model–Version 1, NASA Technical Memorandum 104606, 1, 1994.
Thompson, A. M., and Cicerone, R. J.: Possible perturbations to atmospheric CO, methane, and OH, J. Geophys. Res., 91, 10 853–10 864, 1986.
WMO (World Meteorological Organization): Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project – Report No. 50, 572 pp., Geneva, Switzerland, 2007.
Yevich, R. and Logan, J. A.: An assessment of biofuel use and burning of agricultural waste in the developing world, Global Biogeochem. Cyc., 17, 4, 1095, doi:10.1029/2002GB001952, 2003.
Yurganov, L. N., Grechko, E. I., and Dzhola, A. V.: Variations of carbon monoxide density in the total atmospheric column over Russia between 1970 and 1995: Upward trend and disturbances, attributed to the influence of volcanic aerosol and forest fires, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1231–1234, 1997.
Yurganov, L. N., Grechko, E. I., and Dzhola, A. V.: Zvenigorod carbon monoxide total column time series: 27 yr of measurements, Chemosphere, 1, 127–136, 1999.
Zander, R., Demoulin, Ph., Ehhalt, D. H., Schmidt, U., and Rinsland, C. P.: Secular increase of the total vertical column abundance of carbon monoxide above central Europe since 1950, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 11 021–11 028, 1989.
Zhao, Y., Kondo, Y., Murcray, F. J., Liu, X., Koike, M., Irie, H., Strong, K., Suzuki, K., Sera, M., and Ikegami, Y.: Seasonal variations of HCN over northern Japan measured by ground-based infrared solar spectroscopy, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 14, 2085–2088, 2000.
Ziemke, J. R., Chandra, S., McPeters, R. D., and Newman, P. A.: Dynamical proxies of column ozone with applications to global trend models, J. Geophys. Res., 102, D5, 6117–6129, 1997.