Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 8 3 2008 10.5194/acpd-8-8385-2008 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/8385/2008/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/8385/2008/acpd-8-8385-2008.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/8385/2008/acpd-8-8385-2008.pdf 8385 8429 2008-05-06 A multi-model assessment of pollution transport to the Arctic D. T. Shindell dshindell@giss.nasa.gov H. Teich M. Chin F. Dentener R. M. Doherty G. Faluvegi A. M. Fiore P. Hess I. A. MacKenzie M. G. Sanderson M. G. Schultz M. Schulz D. S. Stevenson C. Textor O. Wild D. J. Bergmann H. Bian C. Cuvelier B. N. Duncan G. Folberth L. W. Horowitz J. Jonson J. W. Kaminski E. Marmer R. Park K. J. Pringle S. Schroeder S. Szopa T. Takemura G. Zeng T. J. Keating A. Zuber NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, NY, USA NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA European Commission, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, UK Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK ICG-2, Forschungszentrum-J ¨ ulich, Germany Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l’Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France Department of Environmental Science, Lancaster University, UK Atmospheric Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, CA, USA Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center, U. Maryland Baltimore County, MD, USA Laboratoire de Mod´ elisation de la Chimie Atmosph´ erique, Ecole Polytechnique F´ed´ erale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Center for Research in Earth and Space Science, York University, Canada Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Japan National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK Office of Policy Analysis and Review, Environ. Protection Agency, Washington DC, USA Environment Directorate General, European Commission, Brussels, Belgium now at: Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany We examine the response of Arctic gas and aerosol concentrations to perturbations in pollutant emissions from Europe, East and South Asia, and North America using results from a coordinated model intercomparison. These sensitivities to regional emissions (mixing ratio change per unit emission) vary widely across models and species. Intermodel differences are systematic, however, so that the relative importance of different regions is robust. North America contributes the most to Arctic ozone pollution. For aerosols and CO, European emissions dominate at the Arctic surface but Asian emissions become progressively more important with altitude, and are dominant in the upper troposphere. Sensitivities show strong seasonality: surface sensitivities typically maximize during boreal winter for European and during spring for East Asian and North American emissions. Mid-tropospheric sensitivities, however, nearly always maximize during spring or summer for all regions. Deposition of black carbon (BC) onto Greenland is most sensitive to North American emissions. North America and Europe each contribute ~40% of total BC deposition to Greenland, with ~20% from East Asia. Elsewhere in the Arctic, both sensitivity and total BC deposition are dominated by European emissions. Model diversity for aerosols is especially large, resulting primarily from differences in aerosol physics and removal. Comparison of aerosols with observations indicates problems in either the models or interpretation of the measurements. For gas phase pollutants such as CO and O₃, which are relatively well-simulated, the processes contributing most to uncertainties depend on the source region. 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