Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
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2008
10.5194/acpd-8-7781-2008
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/7781/2008/
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/7781/2008/acpd-8-7781-2008.html
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/7781/2008/acpd-8-7781-2008.pdf
7781
7804
2008-04-21
Quantification of impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality
K.-J. Liao
E. Tagaris
K. Manomaiphiboon
C. Wang
J.-H. Woo
P. Amar
S. He
A. G. Russell
ted.russell@ce.gatech.edu
School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, MA, USA
Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), Boston, MA, USA
Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok, Thailand
Department of Advanced Technology Fusion, Konkuk University, Seoul, Korea
Impacts of uncertain climate forecasts on future regional air quality are
investigated using downscaled MM5 meteorological fields from the NASA GISS
and MIT IGSM global climate models and the CMAQ model in 2050 in the
continental US. Three future climate scenarios: high-extreme, low-extreme
and base, are developed for regional air quality simulations. GISS, with the
IPCC A1B scenario, is used for the base case. IGSM results, in the form of
probabilistic distributions, are used to perturb the base case climate to
provide 0.5th and 99.5th percentile climate scenarios. Impacts of the extreme
climate scenarios on concentrations of summertime fourth-highest daily
maximum 8-h average ozone are predicted to be up to 10 ppbv (about
one-eighth of the current NAAQS of ozone) in some urban areas, though
average differences in ozone concentrations are about 1–2 ppbv on a regional
basis. Differences between the extreme and base scenarios in annualized
PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels are very location dependent and predicted to range between
−1.0 and +1.5 μg m<sup>−3</sup>. Future annualized PM<sub>2.5</sub> is less
sensitive to the extreme climate scenarios than summertime peak ozone since
precipitation scavenging is only slightly affected by the extreme climate
scenarios examined. Relative abundances of biogenic VOC and anthropogenic
NO<sub>x</sub> lead to the areas that are most responsive to climate change. Such
areas may find that climate change can significantly offset air quality
improvements from emissions reductions, particularly during the most severe
episodes.
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