Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 8 1 2008 10.5194/acpd-8-3405-2008 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/3405/2008/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/3405/2008/acpd-8-3405-2008.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/3405/2008/acpd-8-3405-2008.pdf 3405 3430 2008-02-18 The role of climate and emission changes in future air quality over southern Canada and northern Mexico E. Tagaris K.-J. Liao K. Manomaiphiboon S. He J.-H. Woo P. Amar A. G. Russell ted.russell@ce.gatech.edu School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), 101 Merrimac Street, 10th Floor Boston, MA 02114, USA now at: Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok, Thailand now at: Department of Advanced Technology Fusion, Konkuk University, Seoul, Korea Potential impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional air quality over southern (western and eastern) Canada and northern Mexico are examined by comparing future summers' (i.e., 2049–2051) average regional O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations with historic concentrations (i.e., 2000–2002 summers). Air quality modeling was conducted using CMAQ and meteorology downscaled from the GISS-GCM using MM5. Emissions for North America are found using US EPA, Mexican and Canadian inventories and projected emissions following CAIR and IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Higher temperatures for all sub-regions and regional changes in mixing height, insolation and precipitation are forecast in the 2049–2051 period. Future emissions are calculated to be lower over both Canadian sub-regions, but higher over northern Mexico. Global climate change, alone, is predicted to affect PM_2.5 concentrations more than O₃: M8hO₃ concentrations are estimated to be slightly different in all examined sub-regions while PM_2.5 concentrations are estimated to be higher over both Canadian sub-regions (8% over western and 3% over eastern) but 11% lower over northern Mexico. 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