References

ACPD

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

ACPD

1680-7375

Copernicus GmbH

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/acpd-8-2163-2008

Global ozone and air quality: a multi-model assessment of risks to human health and crops

Ellingsen

¹ Gauss

¹ Van Dingenen

² Dentener

F. J.

² Emberson

³ Fiore

A. M.

⁴ Schultz

M. G.

⁵ Stevenson

D. S.

⁶ Ashmore

M. R.

³ Atherton

C. S.

⁷ Bergmann

D. J.

⁷ Bey

⁸ Butler

⁹ Drevet

⁸ Eskes

¹⁰ Hauglustaine

D. A.

¹¹ Isaksen

I. S. A.

¹ Horowitz

L. W.

⁴ Krol

² ¹⁶ Lamarque

J. F.

¹² Lawrence

M. G.

⁹ van Noije

¹⁰ Pyle

¹³ Rast

⁵ Rodriguez

¹⁴ Savage

¹³ ¹⁷ Strahan

¹⁴ Sudo

¹⁵ Szopa

¹¹ Wild

¹⁵ ¹⁸

University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, Oslo, Norway

Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy

Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Heslington, UK

NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ, USA

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences, Edinburgh, UK

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Atmospheric Science Division, Livermore, USA

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland

Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

National Center of Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Division, Boulder, CO, USA

University of Cambridge, Centre of Atmospheric Science, UK

Goddard Earth Science & Technology Center (GEST), Maryland, Washington, DC, USA

Frontier Research Center for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

now at: Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands

now at: Met Office, Exeter, UK

now at: Dept. of Environmental Science, University of Lancaster, Lancaster, UK

06 02 2008

8 1 2163 2223

This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/2163/2008/acpd-8-2163-2008.html

The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/2163/2008/acpd-8-2163-2008.pdf

Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, eighteen atmospheric models from the U.S., Europe, and Japan calculated present (2000) and future (2030) concentrations of ozone at the Earth's surface with hourly temporal resolution. Comparison of model results with surface ozone measurements in 14 world regions indicates that levels and seasonality of surface ozone in North America and Europe are characterized well by global models, with annual average biases typically within 5–10 nmol/mol. However, comparison with rather sparse observations over some regions suggest that most models overestimate annual ozone by 15–20 nmol/mol in some locations. Two scenarios from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and one from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) have been implemented in the models. This study focuses on changes in near-surface ozone and their effects on human health and vegetation. Different indices and air quality standards are used to characterise air quality. We show that often the calculated changes in the different indices are closely inter-related. Indices using lower thresholds are more consistent between the models, and are recommended for global model analysis. Our analysis indicates that currently about two-thirds of the regions considered do not meet health air quality standards, whereas only 2–4 regions remain below the threshold. Calculated air quality exceedances show moderate deterioration by 2030 if current emissions legislation is followed and slight improvements if current emissions reduction technology is used optimally. For the "business as usual" scenario severe air quality problems are predicted. We show that model simulations of air quality indices are particularly sensitive to how well ozone is represented, and improved accuracy is needed for future projections. Additional measurements are needed to allow a more quantitative assessment of the risks to human health and vegetation from changing levels of surface ozone.

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