Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 8 6 2008 10.5194/acpd-8-21037-2008 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/21037/2008/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/21037/2008/acpd-8-21037-2008.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/21037/2008/acpd-8-21037-2008.pdf 21037 21088 2008-12-16 The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O₃ and PM₁₀ levels at a mid-latitude site M. Demuzere matthias.demuzere@ees.kuleuven.be R. M. Trigo J. Vila-Guerau de Arellano N. P. M. van Lipzig Earth and environmental Sciences, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Heverlee (Leuven), Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium Department of Geophysics, University of Lisbon, Centro de Geofísica da Universidade de Lisboa Fac. Ciencias, Campo Grande, Ed. C8, Piso 6, 1749-016 LISBOA, Portugal Meteorology and Air Quality Section, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands In spite of the strict EU regulations, concentrations of surface ozone and PM₁₀ often exceed the pollution standards for The Netherlands and Europe. Their concentrations are controlled by (precursor) emissions, social and economic developments and a complex combination of meteorological actors. This study tackles the latter, and provides insight in the meteorological processes that play a role in O₃ and PM₁₀ levels in Cabauw (The Netherlands). The relations between meteorological actors and air quality are studied on a~local scale based on observations from Cabauw and are determined by a comprehensive correlation analysis and a multiple regression (MLR) analysis in 2 modes, with and without air quality variables as predictors. Furthermore, the objective Lamb Weather Type (WT) approach based on ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting) operational data is used to assess the influence of the large-scale circulation on air quality. Keeping in mind its future use in downscaling future climate scenarios for air quality purposes, special emphasis is given to an appropriate selection of the regressor variables readily available from operational meteorological forecasts or OAGCMs (Ocean-Atmosphere coupled General Circulation Models). The regression models perform satisfactory for both O₃ and PM₁₀, with an increased performance when including previous days air quality information. The lamb weather types show a seasonal distinct pattern for high (low) episodes of average O₃ and PM₁₀ concentrations, and these are clear related with the meteorology-air quality correlation analysis. 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