Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 8 4 2008 10.5194/acpd-8-15165-2008 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/15165/2008/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/15165/2008/acpd-8-15165-2008.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/15165/2008/acpd-8-15165-2008.pdf 15165 15205 2008-08-11 The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States J. Chen J. Avise B. Lamb blamb@wsu.edu E. Salathé C. Mass A. Guenther C. Wiedinmyer J.-F. Lamarque S. O'Neill D. McKenzie N. Larkin Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA United States Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Portland, OR, USA United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Seattle, WA, USA now at: National Research Council Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada now at: California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA, USA A comprehensive numerical modeling framework was developed to estimate the effects of collective global changes upon ozone pollution in the US in 2050. The framework consists of the global climate and chemistry models, PCM (Parallel Climate Model) and MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers v.2), coupled with regional meteorology and chemistry models, MM5 (Mesoscale Meteorological model) and CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality model). The modeling system was applied for two 10-year simulations: 1990–1999 as a present-day base case and 2045–2054 as a future case. The regional simulations employed 36-km grid cells covering the continental US with boundary conditions taken from the global models. For the current decade, the distributions of summer daily maxima 8-h (DM8H) ozone showed good agreement with observed distributions throughout the US. The future case simulation followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario together with business-as-usual US emission projections and projected alterations in land use, land cover (LULC) due to urban expansion and changes in vegetation. For these projections, US anthropogenic NO<sub>x</sub> (NO + NO<sub>2</sub>) and VOC (volatile organic carbon) emissions increased by approximately 8% and 50%, respectively, while biogenic VOC emissions decreased, in spite of warmer temperatures, due to decreases in forested lands and expansion of croplands, grasslands and urban areas. A stochastic model for wildfire emissions was applied that projected 25% higher VOC emissions in the future. For the global and US emission projection used here, regional ozone pollution becomes worse in the 2045–2054 period for all months. Annually, the mean DM8H ozone was projected to increase by 9.6 ppbv (22%). The changes were higher in the spring and winter (25%) and smaller in the summer (17%). The area affected by elevated ozone within the US continent was projected to increase; areas with levels exceeding the 75 ppbv ozone standard at least once a year increased by 38%. 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