Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 8 4 2008 10.5194/acpd-8-13043-2008 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/13043/2008/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/13043/2008/acpd-8-13043-2008.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/13043/2008/acpd-8-13043-2008.pdf 13043 13062 2008-07-09 Clear sky UV simulations in the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models K. Tourpali A. F. Bais A. Kazantzidis C. S. Zerefos H. Akiyoshi J. Austin C. Brühl N. Butchart M. P. Chipperfield M. Dameris M. Deushi V. Eyring M. A. Giorgetta D. E. Kinnison E. Mancini D. R. Marsh T. Nagashima G. Pitari D. A. Plummer E. Rozanov K. Shibata W. Tian Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece Laboratory of Climatology, Faculty of Geology, University of Athens, Athens, Greece National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, Mainz, Germany Met Office Climate Research Division, Exeter, UK Institute for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan Max-Plank-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Università L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, Italy Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Physical-Meteorological Observatory and World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland We have used total ozone columns and vertical profiles of ozone and temperature from 11 coupled Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs) to project future solar ultraviolet radiation levels at the surface in the 21st century. The CCM simulations are used as input to a radiative transfer model for the simulation of the corresponding future UV irradiance levels under cloud free conditions, presented here as time series of monthly erythemal irradiance received at the surface during local noon covering the period 1960 to 2100. Starting from the first decade of the 21st century, the surface erythemal irradiance decreases globally as a result of the projected ozone recovery, at rates which are larger in the first half of the 21st century, compared to the period up to 2100. The magnitude of these decreases varies with latitude and is more pronounced at areas where ozone has been depleted most considerably after 1980. Over midlatitudes surface erythemal irradiance decreases between 5 and 15% by 2100 relative to 2000, while at the southern high latitudes these changes are twice as much. 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