ACPD Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ACPD 1680-7375 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acpd-8-13043-2008 Clear sky UV simulations in the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models Tourpali K. 1 Bais A. F. 1 Kazantzidis A. 1 Zerefos C. S. 2 Akiyoshi H. 3 Austin J. 4 Brühl C. 5 Butchart N. 6 Chipperfield M. P. 7 Dameris M. 8 Deushi M. 9 Eyring V. 8 Giorgetta M. A. 10 Kinnison D. E. 11 Mancini E. 12 Marsh D. R. 11 Nagashima T. 3 Pitari G. 12 Plummer D. A. 13 Rozanov E. 14 15 Shibata K. 9 Tian W. 7 Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece Laboratory of Climatology, Faculty of Geology, University of Athens, Athens, Greece National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, Mainz, Germany Met Office Climate Research Division, Exeter, UK Institute for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan Max-Plank-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Università L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, Italy Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Physical-Meteorological Observatory and World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland 09 07 2008 8 4 13043 13062 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/13043/2008/acpd-8-13043-2008.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/13043/2008/acpd-8-13043-2008.pdf

We have used total ozone columns and vertical profiles of ozone and temperature from 11 coupled Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs) to project future solar ultraviolet radiation levels at the surface in the 21st century. The CCM simulations are used as input to a radiative transfer model for the simulation of the corresponding future UV irradiance levels under cloud free conditions, presented here as time series of monthly erythemal irradiance received at the surface during local noon covering the period 1960 to 2100. Starting from the first decade of the 21st century, the surface erythemal irradiance decreases globally as a result of the projected ozone recovery, at rates which are larger in the first half of the 21st century, compared to the period up to 2100. The magnitude of these decreases varies with latitude and is more pronounced at areas where ozone has been depleted most considerably after 1980. Over midlatitudes surface erythemal irradiance decreases between 5 and 15% by 2100 relative to 2000, while at the southern high latitudes these changes are twice as much. Climate change may affect future cloudiness, surface reflectivity and tropospheric aerosol loading, the effects of which are not included in this study. Therefore, the actual changes in future UV radiation are likely to change accordingly in the areas affected.

 References Akiyoshi, H., Sugita, T., Kanzawa, H., and Kawamoto, N.: Ozone perturbations in the Arctic summer lower stratosphere as a reflection of NOX chemistry and planetary scale wave activity, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D03304, doi:10.1029/2003JD003632, 2004. Anderson, G. P., Clough, S. A., Kneizys, F. X., Chetwynd, J. H., and Shettle, E. P.: AFGL atmospheric constituent profiles (0–120 km), Tech. Rep. AFGL-TR-86-0110, Mass., Air Force Geophys. Lab., Hascom Air Force Base, 1986. Austin, J. and Wilson, R. J.: Ensemble simulations of the decline and recovery of stratospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D16314, doi:10.1029/2005JD006907, 2006. Austin, J., Wilson, R. J., Li, F., and Vömel, H.: Evolution of water vapor concentrations and stratospheric age of air in coupled chemistry-climate model simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 17 905–17 921, 2006. Bais, A. F., Lubin, D., Arola, A., Bernhard, G., Blumthaler, M., Chubarova, N., Erlick, C., Gies, H. P., Krotkov, N., Lantz, K., Mayer, B., McKenzie, R. L., Piacentini, R., Seckmeyer, G., Slusser, J. R., and Zerefos, C.: Surface ultraviolet radiation: Past, present and future, Geneva, Switzerland, Chapter 7 in Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project–Report No. 47, World Meteorological Organization, 58, 2007. Beagley, S. R., Grandpré, J. D., Koshyk, J. N., McFarlane, N. A., and Shepherd, T. G.: Radiative- dynamical climatology of the first-generation Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, Atmos. Ocean, 35, 293–331, 1997. Comiso, J. C., Parkinson, C. L., Gersten, R., and Stock, L.: Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L01703, doi:10.1029/2007GL031972, 2008. Dameris, M., Grewe, V., Ponater, M., Deckert, R., Eyring, V., Mager, F., Matthes, S., Schnadt, C., Stenke, A., Steil, B., Brühl, C., and Giorgetta, M.: Long-term changes and variability in a transient simulation with a chemistry-climate model employing realistic forcings, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2121–2145, 2005. Dameris, M., Matthes, S., Deckert, R., Grewe, V., and Ponater, M.: Solar cycle effect delays onset of ozone recovery, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03806, doi:10.1029/2005GL024741, 2006. de Grandpré, J., Beagley, S. R., Fomichev, V. I., Griffioen, E., McConnell, J. C., Medvedev, A. S., and Shepherd, T. G.: Ozone climatology using interactive chemistry: Results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 26 475–26 491, 2000. Egorova, T., Rozanov, E., Zubov, V., Manzini, E., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Chemistry-climate model SOCOL: a validation of the present-day climatology, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1557–1576, 2005. Elterman, L.: UV, visible, and IR attenuation for altitudes to 50 km, Bedford, MA, Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories, 1968. Eyring, V., Harris, N. R. P., Rex, M., Shepherd, T. G., Fahey, D. W., Amanatidis, G. T., Austin, J., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Forster, P. M. D. F., Gettelman, A., Graf, H. F., Nagashima, T., Newman, P. A., Pawson, S., Prather, M. J., Pyle, J. A., Salawitch, R. J., Santer, B. D., and Waugh, D. W.: A strategy for process-oriented validation of coupled chemistry-climate models, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 1117–1133, 2005a. Eyring, V., Butchart, N., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Bekki, S., Bodeker, G. E., Boville, B. A., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M. P., Cordero, E., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Fioletov, V. E., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R. R., Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M. A., Grewe, V., Jourdain, L., Kinnison, D. E., Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marchand, M., Marsh, D. R., Nagashima, T., Newman, P. A., Nielsen, J. E., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Schraner, M., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Stolarski, R. S., Struthers, H., Tian, W., and Yoshiki, M.: Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D22308, doi:10.1029/2006JD007327, 2006. Eyring, V., Waugh, D. W., Bodeker, G. E., Cordero, E., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Beagley, S. R., Boville, B. A., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Deckert, R., Deushi, M., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R. R., Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M. A., Kinnison, D. E., Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marsh, D. R., Matthes, S., Nagashima, T., Newman, P. A., Nielsen, J. E., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Schraner, M., Scinocca, J. F., Semeniuk, K., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Steil, B., Stolarski, R. S., Tian, W., and Yoshiki, M.: Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D16303, doi:10.1029/2006JD008332, 2007. Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R., Kinnison, D. E., Boville, B. A., and Sassi, F.: Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950–2003, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D09301, doi:10.1029/2006JD007485, 2007. Herman, J. R., McKenzie, R. L., Diaz, S. B., Kerr, J. B., Madronich, S., and Seckmeyer, G.: Ultraviolet radiation at the Earth's surface, in: UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of the Ozone Layer: 1998, edited by: Albritton, D. L., Aucamp, P. J., Megie, G., and Watson, R. T., 9, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project-Report No. 44, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 9.1–9.46, 1999. IPCC: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 612, 2002. Kazantzidis, A., Bais, A. F., Balis, D. S., Kosmidis, E., Zebila, M.-M., and Zerefos, C. S.: Sensitivity of solar UV radiation calculations to ozone and temperature profiles, in: Ozone, XX Quadrennial Ozone Symposium, Kos, Greece, 1101–1102, 2004. Kerr, J. B., Seckmeyer, G., Bais, A. F., Bernhard, G., Blumthaler, M., Diaz, S. B., Krotkov, N. A., Lubin, D., McKenzie, R. L., Sabziparvar, A. A., and Verdebout, J.: Surface ultraviolet radiation: Past and future, Geneva, Chapter 5 in Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project-Report No. 47, World Meteorological Organization, 2003. Kurokawa, J., Akiyoshi, H., Nagashima, T., Masunaga, H., Nakajima, T., Takahashi, M., and Nakane, H.: Effects of atmospheric sphericity on stratospheric chemistry and dynamics over Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D21305, doi:10.1029/2005JD005798, 2005. Lapeta, B., Engelson, O., Litynska, Z., Kois, B., and Kylling, A.: Sensitivity of surface UV radiation and ozone column retrieval to ozone and temperature profiles, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 5001–5007, 2000. Manzini, E., Steil, B., Brühl, C., Giorgetta, M. A., and Krüger, K.: A new interactive chemistry climate model. 2: Sensitivity of the middle atmosphere to ozone depletion and increase in greenhouse gases: implications for recent stratospheric cooling, J. Geophys. Res., 108, doi:10.1029/2002JD002977, 2003. Mayer, B. and Kylling, A.: Technical note: The libRadtran software package for radiative transfer calculations - description and examples of use, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1855–1877, 2005. McKenzie, R., Smale, D., Bodeker, G., and Claude, H.: Ozone profile differences between Europe and New Zealand: Effects on surface UV irradiance and its estimation from satellite sensors, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4179, doi:10.1029/2002JD002770, 2003. McKinlay, A. F. and Diffey, B. L.: A Reference Action Spectrum for Ultra-violet Induced Erythema in Human Skin, in: Human Exposure to Ultraviolet Radiation: Risks and Regulations, edited by: Passchier, W. F., and Bosnajakovic, B. F. M., Elsevier, Amsterdam, 83–87, 1987. Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper, S. C. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J., and Zhao, Z.-C.: Global Climate Projections, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 99, 2007. Overland, J. E. and Wang, M.: Future regional Arctic sea ice declines, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17705, doi:10.1029/2007GL030808, 2007. Pawson, S., Stolarski, R. S., Douglass, A. R., Newman, P. A., Nielsen, J. E., Frith, S. H., and Gupta, M. L.: Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of Stratospheric Ozone-Temperature Coupling Between 1950 and 2005, J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2007JD009511, in press, 2008. Pitari, G., Mancini, E., Rizi, V., and Shindell, D.: Feedback of future climate and sulfur emission changes on stratospheric aerosols and ozone, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 414–440, 2002. Rozanov, E., Schraner, M., Schnadt, C., Egorova, T., Wild, M., Ohmura, A., Zubov, V., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Assessment of the ozone and temperature variability during 1979–1993 with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, Adv. Space Res., 35, 1375–1384, 2005. Shibata, K. and Deushi, M.: Partitioning between resolved wave forcing and unresolved gravity wave forcing to the quasi-biennial oscillation as revealed with a coupled chemistry-climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., L12820, doi:10.1029/2005GL022885, 2005. Shibata, K., Deushi, M., Sekiyama, T. T., and Yoshimura, H.: Development of an MRI chemical transport model for the study of stratospheric chemistry, Pap. Meteorol. Geophys., 55, 75–119, 2005. Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Kimoto, M., and Nozawa, T.: Anthropogenic and natural forcing impacts on ENSO-like decadal variability during the second half of the 20th century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L21714, doi:10.1029/2005GL023871, 2005. Slaper, H., Velders, G. J. M., Daniel, J. S., de Gruijl, F. R., and van der Leun, J. C.: Estimates of ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence to examine the Vienna convention achievements, Nature, 384, 256–258, 1996. Stamnes, K. and Swanson, R. A.: A new look at the discrete ordinate method for radiative transfer calculations in anisotropically scattering atmospheres, J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 387–399, 1981. Stamnes, K., Tsay, S.-C., Wiscombe, W., and Jayaweera, K.: Numerically stable algorithm for discrete-ordinate-method radiative transfer in multiple scattering and emitting layered media, Appl. Optics, 27, 2502–2509, 1988. Steil, B., Bruhl, C., Manzini, E., Crutzen, P. J., Lelieveld, J., Rasch, P. J., Roeckner, E., and Kruger, K.: A new interactive chemistry-climate model: 1. Present-day climatology and interannual variability of the middle atmosphere using the model and 9 years of HALOE/UARS data, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4290, doi:10.1029/2002JD002971, 2003. Stolarski, R. S., Douglass, A. R., Steenrod, S., and Pawson, S.: Trends in stratospheric ozone: Lessons learned from a 3D chemical transport model, J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 1028–1041, doi:10.1175/JAS3650.1, 2006. Tian, W. and Chipperfield, M. P.: A new coupled chemistry–climate model for the stratosphere: The importance of coupling for future O3-climate predictions, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 281–304, 2005. WMO: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002, World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project – Report No. 47, 498, 2003. WMO: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland, Global ozone Research and Monitoring Project – Report No. 50, 572, 2007.