Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
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2007
10.5194/acpd-7-9867-2007
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/9867/2007/
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/9867/2007/acpd-7-9867-2007.html
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/9867/2007/acpd-7-9867-2007.pdf
9867
9897
2007-07-09
The Response of surface ozone to climate change over the Eastern United States
P. N. Racherla
pavanracherla@cmu.edu
P. J. Adams
Dept. of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
We examined the response of surface ozone to future climate change
over the eastern United States by performing simulations
corresponding to present (1990s) and future (2050s) climates using
an integrated model of global climate, tropospheric gas-phase
chemistry, and aerosols. A future climate has been imposed using
ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the IPCC SRES A2
scenario for the 2050 s decade, resulting in an increase in the
global annual-average surface air temperature by 1.7°C, with
a 1.4°C increase over the surface layer of the eastern United
States. Present-day anthropogenic emissions and CO<sub>2</sub>/CH<sub>4</sub>
mixing ratios have been used in both simulations while
climate-sensitive natural emissions were allowed to vary with the
simulated climate. There is practically zero change in the
spatiotemporally averaged ozone mixing ratios predicted over the
eastern United States. However, the severity and frequency of
ozone episodes over the eastern United States increased due to
future climate change, primarily as a result of increased ozone
chemical production due to increased natural isoprene emissions.
The 95th percentile ozone mixing ratio increased by 5 ppbv
and the largest frequency increase occured in the 80–90 ppbv
range. The most substantial and statistically significant (p-value
<0.05) increases in episode frequency occurred over the
southeast and midatlantic United States, largely as a result of
20% higher annual-average natural isoprene emissions. Increased
chemical production and shorter average lifetime are consistent
features of the predicted seasonal surface ozone response, with
the former's magnitude for a location largely a function of
increased natural isoprene emissions, and the latter largely due
to faster dry deposition removal rates. Future climate change is
also predicted to lengthen the ozone season over the eastern
United States to include late spring and early fall. Significant
interannual variability is observed in the frequency of ozone
episodes and we find that it is necessary to utilize 5 years or
more of simulation data in order to separate the effects of
interannual variability and climate change on ozone episodes.
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