Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 7 4 2007 10.5194/acpd-7-9717-2007 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/9717/2007/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/9717/2007/acpd-7-9717-2007.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/9717/2007/acpd-7-9717-2007.pdf 9717 9767 2007-07-05 Evaluating model performance of an ensemble-based chemical data assimilation system during INTEX-B field mission A. F. Arellano Jr. arellano@ucar.edu K. Raeder J. L. Anderson P. G. Hess L. K. Emmons D. P. Edwards G. G. Pfister T. L. Campos G. W. Sachse Atmospheric Chemistry Division, Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000, USA Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado, 80307-3000, USA Chemistry and Dynamics Branch, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, 23681-2199, USA We present a global chemical data assimilation system using a global atmosphere model, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) with simplified chemistry and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) assimilation package. DART is a community software facility for assimilation studies using the ensemble Kalman filter approach. Here, we apply the assimilation system to constrain global tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) by assimilating meteorological observations of temperature and horizontal wind velocity and satellite CO retrievals from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument. We verify the system performance using independent CO observations taken on board the NSF/NCAR C-130 and NASA DC-8 aircrafts during the April 2006 part of the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX-B). Our evaluations show that MOPITT data assimilation provides significant improvements in terms of capturing the observed CO variability relative to no MOPITT assimilation (i.e. the correlation improves from 0.62 to 0.71, significant at 99% confidence). The assimilation provides evidence of median CO loading of about 150 ppbv at 700 hPa over the NE Pacific during April 2006. This is marginally higher than the modeled CO with no MOPITT assimilation (~140 ppbv). Our ensemble-based estimates of model uncertainty also show model overprediction over the source region (i.e. China) and underprediction over the NE Pacific, suggesting model errors that cannot be readily explained by emissions alone. These results have important implications for improving regional chemical forecasts and for inverse modeling of CO sources and further demonstrates the utility of the assimilation system in comparing non-coincident measurements, e.g. comparing satellite retrievals of CO with in-situ aircraft measurements. Allen, D. J., Kasibhatla, P. S., Thompson, A. M., et al.: Transport-induced interannual variability of carbon monoxide determined using a chemistry and transport model, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 28 655–28 670, doi:10.1029/96JD02984, 1996. Anderson, J. L. and Anderson ,S. L.: A Monte Carlo implementation of the nonlinear filtering problem to produce ensemble assimilations and forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 2741–2758, 1999. Anderson, J. L.: An ensemble adjustment Kalman Filter for data assimilation, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 2884–2903, 2001. Anderson, J. L.: Exploring the need for localization in ensemble data assimilation using an hierarchical ensemble filter, Physica D, doi:10.1016/j.physd.2006.02.011, 2007a. Anderson, J. L.: An adaptive covariance inflation error correction algorithm for ensemble filters, Tellus A, 59, 210–224, 2007b. Arellano A. F., Kasibhatla, P. S, Giglio, L., et al.: Top-down estimates of global CO sources using MOPITT measurements, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L01104, doi:10.1029/2003GL018609, 2004. Arellano A. F. and Hess, P. G.: Sensitivity of top-down estimates of CO sources to GCTM transport, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21807, doi:10.1029/2006GL027371, 2006. Auger, L. and Tangborn, A. V.: A Wavelet-Based Reduced Rank Kalman Filter for Assimilation of Stratospheric Chemical Tracer Observations, Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1220–1237, 2004. Bey, I., Jacob, D. J., Logan, J. A., and Yantosca, R. M.: Asian chemical outflow to the Pacific in spring: Origins, pathways, and budgets, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 23 097–23 114, 10.1029/2001JD000806, 2001. Chai, T., Carmichael, G. R., Sandu, A., et al.: Chemical data assimilation of Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D02301, doi:10.1029/2005JD005883, 2006. Clerbaux, C., Hadji-Lazaro, J., Hauglustaine, D., et al.: Assimilation of carbon monoxide measured from satellite in a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 15 385–15 394, 10.1029/2000JD900682, 2001. Collins, W. D., Rasch, P. J., Eaton, B. E., et al.: Simulating aerosols using a chemical transport model with assimilation of satellite aerosol retrievals: Methodology for INDOEX, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7313–7336, doi:10.1029/2000JD900507, 2001. Collins, W. D., Bitz, C. M., Blackmon, M. L., et al.: The Formulation and atmospheric simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3), J. Climate, 19(11), 2144–2161, 2006. Dee, D. P.: Bias and data assimilation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 131(613), 3323–3343, 2005. Deeter, M. N., Emmons, L. K., Edwards, D. P., et al.: Vertical resolution and information content of CO profiles retrieved by MOPITT, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L15112, doi:10.1029/2004GL020235, 2004. Dethof, A. and Hólm, E.: Ozone assimilation in the ERA-40 reanalysis project, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 2851–2872, 2004. Eben, K., Juru\cs, P., Resler, J., et al.: An ensemble Kalman filter for short-term forecasting of tropospheric ozone concentrations, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 3313–3322, 2005. Elbern, H., Strunk, A., Schmidt, H., and Talagrand, O.: Emission rate and chemical state estimation by 4-dimensional variational inversion, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1–59, 2007. Elbern, H. and Schmidt, H.: A four-dimensional variational chemistry data assimilation scheme for Eulerian chemistry transport modeling, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 18 583–18 598, 1999. Elbern, H., Schmidt, H., Talagrand, O., and Ebel, A.: 4D-variational data assimilation with an adjoint air quality model for emission analysis, Environ. Modell. Software, 15, 539–548, 2000. Emmons L. K., Deeter, M. N., Gille, J. C., et al.: Validation of Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) CO retrievals with aircraft in situ profiles, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D03309, doi:10.1029/2003JD004101, 2004. Emmons, L. K., Pfister, G. G., Edwards, D. P., et al.: Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) validation exercises during summer 2004 field campaigns over North America, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12S02, doi:10.1029/2006JD007833, 2007. Engelen R. J. and McNally, A. P.: Estimating atmospheric CO2 from advanced infrared satellite radiances within an operational four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system: Results and validation, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D18305, doi:10.1029/2005JD005982, 2005. Eskes, H. J., Van Velthoven, P. F. J., Valks, P. J. M., et al.: Assimilation of GOME total ozone satellite observations in a three-dimensional tracer transport model, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 1663–1681, 2003. Evensen, G.: Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte-Carlo methods to forecast error statistics, J. Geophys., Res., 99, 10 143–10 162, 1994. Fisher, M., and Lary, D.J.: Lagrangian four-dimensional variational data assimilation of chemical species, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 1681-1704, 1995. Frankenberg, C., Meirink, J. F., Bergamaschi, P., et al.: Satellite chartography of atmospheric methane from SCIAMACHY on board ENVISAT: Analysis of the years 2003 and 2004, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D07303, doi:10.1029/2005JD006235, 2006. Gaspari, G. and Cohn, S. E.: Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 723–758, 1999. Giglio, L., Csiszar, I., and Justice, C. O.: Global distribution and seasonality of active fires as observed with the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, J. Geophys. Res., 111, G02016, doi:10.1029/2005JG000142, 2006. Granier, C., Müller, J.-F. , Pétron, G., et al.: A three-dimensional study of the global CO budget, Chemosphere, Global. Change Sci., 1, 255–261, 1999. Hamill, T. M., Whitaker, J., and Snyder, C.: Distance-dependent filtering of background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalman filter, Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2776–2790, 2001. Hanea, R. G., Velders, G. J. M., and Heemink, A.: Data assimilation of ground-level ozone in Europe with a Kalman filter and chemistry transport model, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D10302, doi:10.1029/2003JD004283, 2004. Houtekamer, P. L. and Mitchell, H. L.: Data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique, Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 796–811, 1998. Houtekamer, P. L., Mitchell, H. L., Pellerin, G., et al.: Atmospheric data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter: Results with real observations, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(3), 604–620, 2005. Jaffe, D., Anderson, T., Covert, D., et al.: Transport of Asian air pollution to North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26(6), 711–714, doi:10.1029/1999GL900100, 1999. Juckes, M. N. and Lawrence, B. N.: Data Assimilation for Reanalyses: potential gains from full use of post-analysis-time observations, Tellus A 58(2), 171–178, 2006. Khattatov, B. V., Lamarque, J.-F. , Lyjak, L. V., et al.: Assimilation of satellite observations of long-lived chemical species in global chemistry transport models, J. Geophys. Res., 105(D23), 29 135–29 144, 10.1029/2000JD900466, 2000. Lamarque, J.-F., Khattatov, B. V., Gille, J. C., and Brasseur, G. P.: Assimilation of Measurement of Air Pollution from space (MAPS) CO in a global three-dimensional model, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D21), 26 209–26 218, doi:10.1029/1999JD900807, 1999. Lamarque J.-F. and Gille, J. C.: Improving the modeling of error variance evolution in the assimilation of chemical species: Application to MOPITT data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(9), 1470, doi:10.1029/2003GL016994, 2003. Lamarque J.-F., Khattatov, B. V., and Gille, J. C.: Constraining tropospheric ozone column through data assimilation, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D22), 4651, doi:10.1029/2001JD001249, 2002. Lamarque, J. F., Khattatov, B. V.,Yudin, V., et al.: Application of a bias estimator for the improved assimilation of Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) carbon monoxide retrievals, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D16304, doi:10.1029/2003JD004466, 2004. Lamarque, J.-F., Kiehl, J. T., Hess, P. G., et al.: Response of a coupled chemistry climate model to changes in aerosol emissions: Global impact on the hydrological cycle and the tropospheric burdens of OH, ozone, and NOx, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2005GL023419, 2005. Lary, D. J.: Data assimilation: a powerful tool for atmospheric chemistry, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. A. Math Phys., 357(1763), 3445–3457, 1999. Lawrence, M. G., Hov, Ø., Beekmann, M., et al.: The Chemical Weather, Environ. Chem., 2, 6–8, doi:10.1071/EN05014, 2005. Levelt, P. F., Khattatov, B. V., Gille, J. C., et al.: Assimilation of MLS ozone measurements in the global three-dimensional chemistry transport model ROSE, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25(24), 4493–4496, 10.1029/1998GL900152, 1998. Liang Q., Jaeglé, L., Jaffe, D. A., et al.: Long-range transport of Asian pollution to the northeast Pacific: Seasonal variations and transport pathways of carbon monoxide, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D23S07, doi:10.1029/2003JD004402, 2004. Logan, J. A., Prather, M. J., Wofsy, S. C., and McElroy, M. B.: Tropospheric chemistry: A global perspective, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 7210–7254, 1981. Lorenc, A. C.: The potential of the ensemble Kalman . lter for NWP–-a comparison with 4D-Var, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 3183–3203, 2003. McLaughlin, D., O'neill, A., Derber, J., and Kamachi, M.: Opportunities for enhanced collaboration within the data assimilation community, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 3683–3693, 2005. Menard, R., Cohn, S. E., Chang, L.-P., and Lyster, P. M.: Assimilation of Stratospheric Chemical Tracer Observations Using a Kalman Filter, Part I: Formulation, Mon. Wea. Rev, 128, 2654–2671, 2000. Muller, J. F. and T. Stavrakou, T.: Inversion of CO and NOx emissions using the adjoint of the IMAGES model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1157–1186, 2005. Novelli, P. C., Masarie, K. A., Lang, P. M., et al.: Reanalysis of tropospheric CO trends: Effects of the 1997–1998 wildfires, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D15), 4464, doi:10.1029/2002JD003031, 2003. Peters, W., Miller, J. B., Whitaker, J., et al.: An ensemble data assimilation system to estimate CO₂ surface fluxes from atmospheric trace gas observations, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D24304, doi:10.1029/2005JD006157, 2005. Pétron G., Granier, C., Khattatov, B., et al.: Monthly CO surface sources inventory based on the 2000–2001 MOPITT satellite data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L21107, doi:10.1029/2004GL020560, 2004. Rabier, F.: Overview of global data assimilation developments in numerical weather-prediction centres, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 3215–3233, 2005. Rasch, P. J., Coleman, D. B., Mahowald, N., et al.: Characteristics of atmospheric transport using three numerical formulations for atmospheric dynamics in a single GCM framework, J. Climate, 19(11), 2243–2266, 2006. Rasch, P. J., Collins, W. D., and Eaton, B. E.: Understanding the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) aerosol distributions with an aerosol assimilation, J. Geophys. Res., 106(D7), 7337–7356, doi:10.1029/2000JD900508, 2001. Rayner P. J., Scholze, M., Knorr, W., et al.: Two decades of terrestrial carbon fluxes from a carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS), Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 19, GB2026, doi:10.1029/2004GB002254, 2005. Sandu, A., Constantinescu, E. M., Liao, W., et al.: Ensemble-based data assimilation for atmospheric chemical transport models, Lect. Notes in Comp. Sci., 3515, 648–-655, 2005. Sekiyama, T. T. and Shibata, K.: Predictability of Total Ozone Using a Global Three-Dimensional Chemical Transport Model Coupled with the MRI/JMA98 GCM, Mon. Wea. Rev. 133(8), 2262, 2005. Stajner, I., Riishøjgaard, L. P., and Rood, R.: The GEOS ozone data assimilation system: specification of error statistics, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 1069–1094, 2001. Tippet, M. K., Anderson, J. L., Bishop, C. H., et al.: Ensemble square root filters, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 1485–1490, 2003. Van Loon, M., Builtjes, P. J. H., and Segers, A.: Data assimilation of ozone in the atmospheric transport chemistry model LOTOS, Env. Mod. and Softw., 15, 603–609, 2000. van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., et al.: Interannual variability in biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3423–3441, 2006. Wang, K. Y., Lary, D. J., Shallcross, D. E., et al.: A review on the use of the adjoint method in four-dimensional atmospheric-chemistry data assimilation, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127(576), 2181–2204, 2001. Yienger, J., Galanter, M., Holloway, T. A., et al.: The episodic nature of air pollution transport from Asia to North America, J. Geophys. Res., 105(D22), 26 931–26 946, 10.1029/2000JD900309, 2000. Yudin, V. A., Pétron, G., Lamarque, J.-F., et al.: Assimilation of the 2000–2001 CO MOPITT retrievals with optimized surface emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L20105, doi:10.1029/2004GL021037, 2004.