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Development and evaluation of an operational SDS forecasting system for East Asia: CUACE/DUST
1Centre for Atmosphere Watch & Services (CAWAS), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081, China
2Air Quality Research Division, Science & Technology Branch, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada
Abstract. CUACE/Dust, an operational sand and dust storm (SDS) forecasting system for East Asia, was developed at CMA (China Meteorological Administration) by integrating a meso-scale dust aerosol model with a 3DVar data assimilation system that uses both surface network observation data and dust intensity data retrieved from the Chinese Geostationary Satellite FY-2C. For spring 2006, CUACE/Dust successfully forecasted most of the 31 SDS episodes in East Asia. A detailed comparison of the modeling predictions for the 8–12 March episode with surface network observations and lidar measurements revealed a robust forecasting ability of the system. The time series of the forecasted dust concentrations for a number of representative stations for the whole spring 2006 were also evaluated against surface PM10 monitoring data, showing a very good agreement in terms of the SDS timing and magnitudes near source regions where dust aerosols dominate. For the entire domain forecasts in spring 2006 (1 March–31 May), a TS (thread score) system evaluated the performance of the system against all available observations and rendered an averaged TS value of 0.31 for 24 h forecasts, 0.23 for 48 h and 0.21 for 72 h forecasts.
Discussion Paper (PDF, 1927 KB) Interactive Discussion (Closed, 9 Comments) Final Revised Paper (ACP)
Citation: Zhou, C. H., Gong, S. L., Zhang, X. Y., Wang, Y. Q., Niu, T., Liu, H. L., Zhao, T. L., Yang, Y. Q., and Hou, Q.: Development and evaluation of an operational SDS forecasting system for East Asia: CUACE/DUST, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 7, 7987-8015, 2007. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager
