Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 7, 7987-8015, 2007
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
Development and evaluation of an operational SDS forecasting system for East Asia: CUACE/DUST
C. H. Zhou1, S. L. Gong1,2, X. Y. Zhang1, Y. Q. Wang1, T. Niu1, H. L. Liu1, T. L. Zhao2, Y. Q. Yang1, and Q. Hou1
1Centre for Atmosphere Watch & Services (CAWAS), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081, China
2Air Quality Research Division, Science & Technology Branch, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada

Abstract. CUACE/Dust, an operational sand and dust storm (SDS) forecasting system for East Asia, was developed at CMA (China Meteorological Administration) by integrating a meso-scale dust aerosol model with a 3DVar data assimilation system that uses both surface network observation data and dust intensity data retrieved from the Chinese Geostationary Satellite FY-2C. For spring 2006, CUACE/Dust successfully forecasted most of the 31 SDS episodes in East Asia. A detailed comparison of the modeling predictions for the 8–12 March episode with surface network observations and lidar measurements revealed a robust forecasting ability of the system. The time series of the forecasted dust concentrations for a number of representative stations for the whole spring 2006 were also evaluated against surface PM10 monitoring data, showing a very good agreement in terms of the SDS timing and magnitudes near source regions where dust aerosols dominate. For the entire domain forecasts in spring 2006 (1 March–31 May), a TS (thread score) system evaluated the performance of the system against all available observations and rendered an averaged TS value of 0.31 for 24 h forecasts, 0.23 for 48 h and 0.21 for 72 h forecasts.

Citation: Zhou, C. H., Gong, S. L., Zhang, X. Y., Wang, Y. Q., Niu, T., Liu, H. L., Zhao, T. L., Yang, Y. Q., and Hou, Q.: Development and evaluation of an operational SDS forecasting system for East Asia: CUACE/DUST, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 7, 7987-8015, doi:10.5194/acpd-7-7987-2007, 2007.
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