Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 7 3 2007 10.5194/acpd-7-6843-2007 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/6843/2007/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/6843/2007/acpd-7-6843-2007.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/6843/2007/acpd-7-6843-2007.pdf 6843 6902 2007-05-22 An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980–2020 T. Ohara tohara@nies.go.jp H. Akimoto J. Kurokawa N. Horii K. Yamaji X. Yan T. Hayasaka National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan Institute of Developing Economies, IDE-JETRO, Chiba, Japan Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan We developed a new emission inventory for Asia (Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) Version 1.1) for the period 1980–2020. REAS is the first inventory to integrate historical, present, and future emissions in Asia on the basis of a consistent methodology. We present here emissions in 2000, historical emissions for 1980–2003, and projected emissions for 2010 and 2020 of SO₂, NOx, CO, NMVOC, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) from fuel combustion and industrial sources. Total energy consumption in Asia more than doubled between 1980 and 2003, causing a rapid growth in Asian emissions, by 28% for BC, 30% for OC, 64% for CO, 108% for NMVOC, 119% for SO₂, and 176% for NOx. In particular, Chinese NOx emissions showed a marked increase of 280% over 1980 levels, and growth in emissions since 2000 has been extremely high. These increases in China were mainly caused by increases in coal combustion in the power plants and industrial sectors. NMVOC emissions also rapidly increased because of growth in the use of automobiles, solvents, and paints. By contrast, BC, OC, and CO emissions in China showed decreasing trends from 1996 to 2000 because of a reduction in the use of biofuels and coal in the domestic and industry sectors. However, since 2000, Chinese emissions of these species have begun to increase. Thus, the emissions of air pollutants in Asian countries (especially China) showed large temporal variations from 1980–2003. Future emissions in 2010 and 2020 in Asian countries were projected by emission scenarios and from emissions in 2000. For China, we developed three emission scenarios: PSC (policy success case), REF (reference case), and PFC (policy failure case). In the 2020 REF scenario, Asian total emissions of SO₂, NOx, and NMVOC were projected to increase substantially by 22%, 44%, and 99%, respectively, over 2000 levels. The 2020 REF scenario showed a modest increase in CO (12%), a lesser increase in BC (1%), and a slight decrease in OC (–5%) compared with 2000 levels. However, it should be noted that Asian total emissions are strongly influenced by the emission scenarios for China. Akimoto, H. and Narita, H.: Distribution of SO₂, NO_x, and CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion and industrial activities in Asia with 1°$\times $1° resolution, Atmos. Environ., 28, 213–225, 1994. Akimoto, H.: Global air quality and pollution, Science, 302, 1716–1719, 2003. 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