Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net
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2007
10.5194/acpd-7-5701-2007
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/5701/2007/
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/5701/2007/acpd-7-5701-2007.html
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/5701/2007/acpd-7-5701-2007.pdf
5701
5737
2007-04-27
Seeking for the rational basis of the median model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results
A. Riccio
G. Giunta
S. Galmarini
Dept. of Applied Science, University of Naples "Parthenope", Napoli, Italy
European Commission - DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble
results.
The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also
used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release
of radioactive nuclides.
<br><br>
We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem)
and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1
exercise.
We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach
called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b).
<br><br>
This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify)
model uncertainties, thus
supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities
in a very effective manner.
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