Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
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10.5194/acpd-7-5553-2007
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http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/5553/2007/acpd-7-5553-2007.html
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/5553/2007/acpd-7-5553-2007.pdf
5553
5593
2007-04-26
Nitrate aerosols today and in 2030: importance relative to other aerosol species and tropospheric ozone
S. E. Bauer
sbauer@giss.nasa.gov
D. Koch
N. Unger
S. M. Metzger
D. T. Shindell
D. G. Streets
The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
University of Vermont, Burlington, USA
Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA
Ammonium-nitrate aerosols are expected to become more important in the future
atmosphere due to the expected increase in nitrate precursor emissions and
the decline of ammonium-sulphate aerosols in wide regions of this planet. The
GISS climate model is used in this study, including atmospheric gas- and
aerosol phase chemistry to investigate current and future (2030, following
the SRES A1B emission scenario) atmospheric compositions. A set of
sensitivity experiments was carried out to quantify the individual impact of
emission- and physical climate change on nitrate aerosol formation. We found
that future nitrate aerosol loads depend most strongly on changes that may
occur in the ammonia sources. Furthermore, microphysical processes that lead
to aerosol mixing play a very important role in sulphate and nitrate aerosol
formation. The role of nitrate aerosols as climate change driver is analyzed
and set in perspective to other aerosol and ozone forcings under
pre-industrial, present day and future conditions. In the near future, year
2030, ammonium nitrate radiative forcing is about –0.14 W/m<sup>2</sup> and
contributes roughly 10% of the net aerosol and ozone forcing. The present
day nitrate and pre-industrial nitrate forcings are –0.11 and –0.05 W/m<sup>2</sup>, respectively. The steady increase of nitrate aerosols since
industrialization increases its role as a non greenhouse gas forcing agent.
However, this impact is still small compared to greenhouse gas forcings,
therefore the main role nitrate will play in the future atmosphere is as an
air pollutant, with annual mean near surface air concentrations rising above
3 μg/m<sup>3</sup> in
China and therefore reaching pollution levels, like sulphate aerosols, in the fine particle mode.
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