Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 7 6 2007 10.5194/acpd-7-17299-2007 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/17299/2007/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/17299/2007/acpd-7-17299-2007.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/17299/2007/acpd-7-17299-2007.pdf 17299 17338 2007-11-28 Global fire activity patterns (1996–2006) and climatic influence: an analysis using the World Fire Atlas Y. Le Page lepagey@isa.utl.pt J. M. C. Pereira R. Trigo C. da Camara D. Oom B. Mota Technical University of Lisbon, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Department of Forestry, Tapada da Ajuda 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal Lisbon University, Geophysical Center, Department of Physics, Campo Grande, Ed C8, Piso 6, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal Tropical Research Institute, Remote Sensing Centre, Tv. Conde da Ribeira 9, 1300-142 Lisboa, Portugal Vegetation fires have been acknowledged as an environmental process of global scale, which affects the chemical composition of the troposphere, and has profound ecological and climatic impacts. However, considerable uncertainty remains, especially concerning intra and inter-annual variability of fire incidence. The main goals of our global-scale study were to characterise spatial-temporal patterns of fire activity, to identify broad geographical areas with similar vegetation fire dynamics, and to analyse the relationship between fire activity and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This study relies on 10 years (mid 1996–mid 2006) of screened European Space Agency World Fire Atlas (WFA) data, obtained from Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and Advanced ATSR (AATSR) imagery. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis was used to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset. Regions of homogeneous fire dynamics were identified with cluster analysis, and interpreted based on their eco-climatic characteristics. The impact of 1997–1998 El Niño is clearly dominant over the study period, causing increased fire activity in a variety of regions and ecosystems, with variable timing. Overall, this study provides the first global decadal assessment of spatio-temporal fire variability and confirms the usefulness of the screened WFA for global fire ecoclimatology research. Abram, N. J., Gagan, M. K., McCulloch, M. T., Chappell, J., and Hantoro, W. S.: Coral reef death during the 1997 Indian Ocean dipole linked to Indonesian wildfires, Science, 301, 952–955, 2003. Akaakara, S.: Special Report on Forest Fire. International Forest Fire News, 26, 100–105, available at: http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/iffn_26/IFFN_26.pdf, 2002. Alencar, A., Nepstad, D., and Diaz, M. D. V.: Forest understory fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and non-ENSO years: Area burned and committed carbon emissions, Earth Interactions, 10, 1–17, 2006. Allan, R. J., Lindesay, J., and Parker, D. E.: El Nino – Southern Oscillation & Climatic Variability, CSIRO Publishing, 1996. Anyamba, A., Tucker, C. J., and Eastman, J. R.: NDVI anomaly patterns over Africa during the 1997/98 ENSO warm event, Int. J. Remote Sens., 22, 1847–1859, 2001. Aragão, L., Malhi, Y., Roman-Cuesta, R. M., Saatchi, S., Anderson, L. O., and Shimabukuro, Y. E.: Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts, Geophys. Res. Lett, 34(5), L07701, doi;10.1029/2006GL028946, 2007. Arino, O. and Plummer, S.: The Along Track Scanning Radiometer World Fire Altas – Detection of night-time fire activity. IGBP-DIS Working paper #23, Potsdam, Germany, 2001. Arino, O., Plummer, S., and Defrenne, D.: Fire disturbance: the ten years time series of the ATSR world fire atlas, H. Lacoste, Proceedings of the MERIS (A)ATSR Workshop 2005 (ESA SP-597), 2005. Arkhipov, V., Moukanov, B. M., Khaidarov, K., and Goldammer, J. G.: Overview on Forest Fires in Kazakhstan. International Forest Fire News, 22, 40–48, available at: http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/country/kz/kz_1.htm, 2000. Barbosa, R. I.: Forest Fires in Roraima, Brazilian Amazonia. International Forest Fire News, 28, 51–56, available at: http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/iffn_28/Brazil-2.pdf, 2003. Beckage, B., Platt, W. J., Slocum, M. G., and Pank, B.: Influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on fire regimes in the Florida everglades, Ecology, 84, 3124–3130, 2003. Black, E.: The relationship between Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature and east African rainfall, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 363, 43–47, 2005. Bond, W. J., Woodward, F. I., and Midgley, G. F.: The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire, New Phytol., 165, 525–537, 2005. Bureau of Meteorology, Annual report 2001-2002: http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/eiab/reports/ar01-02/PDF/Annual_Report_2001-02.pdf, access: 14 September 2007. 2002. Cairns, M. A., Hao, W. M., Alvarado, E., and Haggerty, P. C.: Carbon Emissions from Spring 1998 Fires in Tropical Mexico, in: Proceedings from The Joint Fire Science Conference and Workshop "Crossing the Millennium: Integrating Spatial Technologies and Ecological Principles for a New Age in Fire Management". Moscow, University of Idaho, USA, 15–17 June 1999, Volume 1, 242–248, 2000. Carmona-Moreno, C., Belward, A., Malingreau, J. P., Hartley, A., Garcia-Alegre, M., Antonovskiy, M., Buchshtaber, V., and Pivovarov, V.: Characterizing interannual variations in global fire calendar using data from Earth observing satellites, Glob. Change Biol., 11, 1537–1555, 2005. Cochrane, M. A., Alencar, A., Schulze, M. D., Souza, C. M., Nepstad, D. C., Lefebvre, P., and Davidson, E. A.: Positive feedbacks in the fire dynamic of closed canopy tropical forests, Science, 284, 1832–1835, 1999. Cochrane, M. A. and Schulze, M. D.: Fire as a recurrent event in tropical forests of the eastern Amazon: Effects on forest structure, biomass, and species composition, Biotropica, 31, 2–16, 1999. Craddock, J. M. and Flood, C. R.: Eigenvectors for representing the 500 mb geopotential surface over the Northern Hemisphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 1969. Diaz, H. F., Hoerling, M. P., and Eischeid, J. K.: ENSO variability, teleconnections and climate change, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1845–1862, 2001. Doherty, R. M., Stevenson, D. S., Johnson, C. E., Collins, W. J., and Sanderson, M. G.: Tropospheric ozone and El Nino-Southern Oscillation: Influence of atmospheric dynamics, biomass burning emissions, and future climate change, J. Geophys. Res-Atmos., 111, D19304, doi:10.1029/2005JD006849, 2006. Dwyer, E., Pereira, J. M. C., Gregoire, J. M., and DaCamara, C. C.: Characterization of the spatio-temporal patterns of global fire activity using satellite imagery for the period April 1992 to March 1993, J. Biogeogr., 27, 57–69, 2000a. Dwyer, E., Pinnock, S., Gregoire, J. M., and Pereira, J. M. C.: Global spatial and temporal distribution of vegetation fire as determined from satellite observations, Int. J. Remote Sens., 21, 1289–1302, 2000b. Fuller, D. O. and Murphy, K.: The ENSO-fire dynamic in insular Southeast Asia, Climatic Change, 74, 435–455, 2006. GCOS-107: Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-based Products for Climate – Supplemental details to the satellite-based component of the Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos-107.pdf, access: 14 September 2007, 2006. Giglio, L., Descloitres, J., Justice, C. O., and Kaufman, Y. J.: An enhanced contextual fire detection algorithm for MODIS, Remote Sens. Environ., 87, 273–282, 2003. Giglio, L., van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Collatz, G. J., and Kasibhatla, P.: Global estimation of burned area using MODIS active fire observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 957–974, 2006. Glantz, M. H.: Currents of Change: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on Climate and Society, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2001. Goldammer, J. G. and Habte, T.: fire disasters: Early warning, monitoring, and response. UN International Search and Rescue Advisory Group (INSARAG) Regional Europe – Africa Meeting, Hammamet, Tunisia, 15–19 November 2000, 2000. Govaerts, Y. M., Pereira, J. M., Pinty, B., and Mota, B.: Impact of fires on surface albedo dynamics over the African continent, J. Geophys. Res-Atmos., 107, 4629, doi:10.1029/2002JD002388, 2002. Hanley, D. E., Bourassa, M. A., O'Brien, J. J., Smith, S. R., and Spade, E. R.: A quantitative evaluation of ENSO indices, J. Climate, 16, 1249–1258, 2003. Hess, J. C., Scott, C. A., Hufford, G. L., and Fleming, M. D.: El Nino and its impact on fire weather conditions in Alaska, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 10, 1–13, 2001. Holmgren, M., Stapp, P., Dickman, C. R., Gracia, C., Grahams, S., Gutierrez, J. R., Hice, C., Jaksic, F., Kelt, D. A., Letnic, M., Lima, M., Lopez, B. C., Meserve, P. L., Milstead, W. B., Polis, G. A., Previtali, M. A., Michael, R., Sabate, S., and Squeo, F. A.: Extreme climatic events shape arid and semiarid ecosystems, Front. Ecol. Environ., 4, 87–95, 2006. Ito, A. and Penner, J. E.: Global estimates of biomass burning emissions based on satellite imagery for the year 2000, J. Geophy. Res-Atmos., 109, D14S05, doi:10.1029/2003JD004423, 2004. Johnston, T.: Canada Report 1998, International Forest Fire News, 20, 40–45, available at: http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/country/ca/ca_6.htm, 1999. Justice, C. O., Giglio, L., Korontzi, S., Owens, J., Morisette, J. T., Roy, D., Descloitres, J., Alleaume, S., Petitcolin, F., and Kaufman, Y.: The MODIS fire products, Remote Sens. Environ., 83, 244–262, 2002. Kasischke, E. S., and Bruhwiler, L. P.: Emissions of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane from boreal forest fires in 1998, J. Geophy. Res-Atmos., 108, 8146, doi:10.1029/2001JD000461, 2002. Kasischke, E. S., Hewson, J. H., Stocks, B., van der Werf, G., and Randerson, J.: The use of ATSR active fire counts for estimating relative patterns of biomass burning – a study from the boreal forest region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(18), 1969, doi:10.1029/2003GL017859, 2003. Kaufman, Y. J. and Koren, I.: Smoke and pollution aerosol effect on cloud cover, Science, 313, 655–658, 2006. Kijazi, A. L. and Reason, C. J. C.: Relationships between intraseasonal rainfall variability of coastal Tanzania and ENSO, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 82, 153–176, 2005. Kitzberger, T., Swetnam, T. W., and Veblen, T. T.: Inter-hemispheric synchrony of forest fires and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 10, 315–326, 2001. Laurance, W. F. and Williamson, G. B.: Positive feedbacks among forest fragmentation, drought, and climate change in the Amazon, Conserv. Biol., 15, 1529–1535, 2001. Lindesay, J. A.: Fire and climate in Australia, in Australia Burning: Fire Ecology, Policy and Management Issues, edited by: Cary G., Lindenmayer D., and Dovers, S., CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, Australia, 2003. Loboda, T. V.: Estimating Potential Fire Danger within the Siberian Tiger Habitat. Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA, available at: http://www.savethetigerfund.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Papers_and_Theses&TEMPLATE=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&CONTENTID=1719, 2004. Lyon, B. and Barnston, A. G.: ENSO and the spatial extent of interannual precipitation extremes in tropical land areas, J. Climate, 18, 5095–5109, 2005. Milligan, G. W.: An examination of the effect of six types of error perturbation on fifteen clustering algorithms, Psychometrika, 1980. Mollicone, D., Eva, H. D., and Achard, F.: Ecology – Human role in Russian wild fires, Nature, 440, 436–437, 2006. Mota, B. W., Pereira, J. M. C., Oom, D., Vasconcelos, M. J. P., and Schultz, M.: Screening the ESA ATSR-2 World Fire Atlas (1997–2002), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 1409–1424, 2006. Murdiyarso, D. and Adiningsih, E. S.: Climate anomalies, Indonesian vegetation fires and terrestrial carbon emissions. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12, 101–112, 2007. NCDC, Climate of 1998 Annual Review: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/1998/ann/ann98.html, access: 14 September 2007, 1999. NCDC, Climate of 2002 Annual Review: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2002/ann/ann02.html, access: 14 September 2007, 2003. Nepstad, D. C., Verissimo, A., Alencar, A., Nobre, C., Lima, E., Lefebvre, P., Schlesinger, P., Potter, C., Moutinho, P., Mendoza, E., Cochrane, M., and Brooks, V.: Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging and fire, Nature, 398, 505–508, 1999. Page, S. E., Siegert, F., Rieley, J. O., Boehm, H. D. V., Jaya, A., and Limin, S.: The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997, Nature, 420, 61–65, 2002. Riaño, D., Ruiz, J. A. M., Isidoro, D., and Ustin, S. L.: Global spatial patterns and temporal trends of burned area between 1981 and 2000 using NOAA-NASA Pathfinder, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 40–50, 2007. Roman-Cuesta, R. M., Gracia, M., and Retana, J.: Environmental and human factors influencing fire trends in enso and non-enso years in tropical Mexico, Ecol. Appl., 13, 1177–1192, 2003. Schafer, J. S., Holben, B. N., Eck, T. F., Yamasoe, M. A., and Artaxo, P.: Atmospheric effects on insolation in the Brazilian Amazon: Observed modification of solar radiation by clouds and smoke and derived single scattering albedo of fire aerosols, J. Geophys. Res-Atmos., 107(D20), 8074, doi:10.1029/2001JD000428, 2002. Schimel, D. and Baker, D.: Carbon cycle: The wildfire factor, Nature, 420, 29–30, 2002. Schoennagel, T., Veblen, T. T., Romme, W. H., Sibold, J. S., and Cook, E. R.: ENSO and PDO variability affect drought-induced fire occurrence in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, Ecol. Appl., 15, 2000–2014, 2005. Shvidenko, A.: Fire Situation in Russia. International Forest Fire News, 24, 41–59, available at: http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/country/rus/rus_26.htm, 2001. Siegert, F. and Hoffmann, A. A.: The 1998 forest fires in East Kalimantan (Indonesia): A quantitative evaluation using high resolution, multitemporal ERS-2 SAR images and NOAA-AVHRR hotspot data, Remote Sens. Environ., 72, 64–77, 2000. Siegert, F., Ruecker, G., Hinrichs, A., and Hoffmann, A. A.: Increased damage from fires in logged forests during droughts caused by El Nino, Nature, 414, 437–440, 2001. Simard, A. J., Haines, D. A., and Main, W. A.: Relations between El Niño Southern Oscillation anomalies and wildland fire activity in the United-States, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 36, 93–104, 1985. Soares-Filho, B. S., Nepstad, D. C., Curran, L. M., Cerqueira, G. C., Garcia, R. A., Ramos, C. A., Voll, E., McDonald, A., Lefebvre, P., and Schlesinger, P.: Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin, Nature, 520–523, 2006. Swetnam, T. W. and Betancourt, J. L.: Fire - Southern Oscillation relations in the southwestern United-States, Science, 249, 1017–1020, 1990. Tansey, K., Gregoire, J. M., Binaghi, E., Boschetti, L., Brivio, P. A., Ershov, D., Flasse, S., Fraser, R., Graetz, D., Maggi, M., Peduzzi, P., Pereira, J., Silva, J., Sousa, A., and Stroppiana, D.: A global inventory of burned areas at 1 km resolution for the year 2000 derived from SPOT VEGETATION data, Climatic Change, 67, 345–377, 2004a. Tansey, K., Gregoire, J. M., Stroppiana, D., Sousa, A., Silva, J., Pereira, J. M. C., Boschetti, L., Maggi, M., Brivio, P. A., Fraser, R., Flasse, S., Ershov, D., Binaghi, E., Graetz, D., and Peduzzi, P.: Vegetation burning in the year 2000: Global burned area estimates from SPOT VEGETATION data, J. Geophys. Res-Atmos., 109(22), D14S03, doi:10.1029/2003JD003598, 2004b. The Nature Conservancy, Living with Fire – Sustaining Ecosystems & Livelihoods Through Integrated Fire Management, by Myers, R. L., available at: http://www.nature.org/initiatives/fire/files/integrated_fire_management_myers_2006.pdf, 2006. Trenberth, K. E.: Short-term climate variations: Recent accomplishments and issues for future progress, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 1081–1096, 1997. van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., Kasibhatla, P. S., and Arellano, A. F.: Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3423–3441, 2006. Veblen, T. T., Kitzberger, T., and Donnegan, J.: Climatic and human influences on fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range, Ecol. Appl., 10, 1178–1195, 2000. Verdon, D. C., Kiem, A. S., and Franks, S. W.: Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk - eastern Australia, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 13, 165–171, 2004. von Storch, H. and Zwiers, F. W.: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2002. Ward, J. H.: Hierarchical Grouping to Optimize an Objective Function. J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 58, 236–244, 1963. Wildland Fire Statistics: http://www.nifc.gov/fire_info/fires_acres.htm, access: 14 September 2007. Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, Burlington, Maryland, USA, 2005. Williamson, G. B., Laurance, W. F., Oliveira, A. A., Delamonica, P., Gascon, C., Lovejoy, T. E., and Pohl, L.: Amazonian tree mortality during the 1997 El Nino drought, Conserv. Biol., 14, 1538–1542, 2000.